Hulu Selangor By-Election: A Vote for Development (Money)

The results of the Hulu Selangor by-election do not come as a surprise to me. Of course, I predicted that PKR would win based on ground sentiments and rift over the choice of BN's candidate. However, I was underestimating BN's capability in manipulating the three Ms (money, media and machinery) (nowadays, it seems like BN is campaigning everyday--even during non-election days--through its propaganda apparatuses namely TV1, TV2 and TV3). Of all the three Ms, it was the first "M" (BN called it "development") which became the decisive factor that turned the tide in Hulu Selangor against PKR. The short campaign period of seven days also proved to be disadvantageous to PKR as they relied on sentiments and national issues to win votes. If you want to convince the voters that sentiments plus issues are more important than development (money) then you need to have more than seven days to change the voters' minds, especially among those who are less educated and less exposed to the media.

BN went all out dispensing huge amount of money to the electorate. Zaid claimed that the ruling coalition spent about RM64 million to win Hulu Selangor while Anwar said it was RM100 million. BN did not need more than seven days to attack Zaid's character and to give cash to the voters. The Felda settlers who have waited for 15 years for the relevant parties to solve their problems, had BN come to their rescue. This forces one to think: why was compensation not given to them when BN was in power? Why only now? Did BN was so desperate to win Hulu Selangor that it did not mind "throwing" money there to prove its "commitment" to develop the area?

Here, I provide to you the amount of money BN spent to win Hulu Selangor. Note that some of the figures were not in the form of on-the-spot endownments (corruption?). They were part of BN's pledge for Hulu Selangor's long-term development should the voters return it to power.

• During his visit to an ailing kidney patient, Najib "announced that the Federal Government would allocate RM15,000 a month or RM180,000 annually as welfare assistance for 53 families". At the same time, Najib also "approved RM30,000 for Kelab Muhibbah Kampung Baru, Kuala Kubu Baru to construct a new building" (The Star, 25 April 2010)
• The Chinese in Rasa had reason to be happy when Najib allocated RM3 million to build a new school for them (The Star, 25 April 2010)
• The Indians were also not spared from receiving a "goodie" from the Prime Minister. Najib gave a letter of undertaking to the Seri Maha Mariamman Temple in Kalumpang so that they could build a new temple on a piece of land. Of course, they would only get what is promised to them if they voted for BN (The Star, 25 April 2010)
• In an attempt to win the votes of the former Felda settlers in Sungai Buaya, Najib plegded to pay them RM18.15 million for having had to wait the payment for the sale of their lands. Some of them received RM50 000 (RM49 000 as a bank draft and RM1000 in cash) (New Straits Times, 24 April, 2010). But that was not it. Najib also pledged to pay the remaining compensation money "at a rate of RM160 000 per acre when the land is developed". Again, this would come with a price: the voters must vote for BN in order the "facilitate" the remaining payment once the land is developed. The former settlers were also given an insurance policy worth RM10 000 (The Star, 25 April 2010)
• After Sungai Buaya, Najib approved another allocation of RM90 000 to a local Chinese association to upgrade a road leading to a cemetary (New Straits Times, 24 April, 2010)
  

Of course, there were allegations that PKR also used money to "entice" the voters. But providing bottled drinks and meals to election workers and to people who attended ceramahs could not be misconstrued as political corruption (what do you think?). If we say the voters were enticed to vote for PKR just for a less than RM5 meal, we would have insulted their intelligence. Were they that cheap? Najib defended his "shopping spree" in Hulu Selangor saying that the money spent was for projects the people wanted. Fine, good that the Prime Minister was concerned about the people, following his "People First Performance Now" slogan. However, why set a condition for the people that they would only be helped when they vote for BN? Didn't Najib represent the Government of Malaysia and thus it is his responsibility to help the people irrespective their political affiliations and idealisms?

Zaid was banking on his charisma and experience in the federal cabinet, plus his outspokenness on national issues such as ISA (International Security Act), human rights and freedom of speech. The problem is, if you take these issues to a semi-urban area like Hulu Selangor, you might be seen as an idealistic university professor talking to a bunch of fresh graduates. No, I am not saying that the Hulu Selangor voters are incapable of understanding national issues. I am simply being realistic about local politics. A local guy who understands local issue and "local language" might have been more appropriate to stand in order to wrest Hulu Selangor from BN. Hulu Selangor was once a PKR seat but do not forget it had been a BN stronghold before it fell to PKR in 2008. And the vote margin obtained by the PKR candidate in 2008 was less than 200 votes. So, by allowing an "outsider" to take on BN in Hulu Selangor, PKR's chances of winning might have been slightly reduced. Also, fielding a Malay-Muslim with a less liberal outlook might have been more suitable as the battle ground clearly is in the Malay heartlands of Hulu Selangor.

BN said that the party's victory in Hulu Selangor is a mandate to Najib's administration and an endorsement of his 1Malaysia concept, NEM (New Economic Model) and other policies. However, take a closer look: Zaid also obtained a substantial number of votes in the by election. If we translate his popular votes into percentage it would be 48.21 percent compared to BN's 51.78 percent. This is just 3.57 percent difference. BN's supporters can claim the Hulu Selangor victory a referendum or sorts for Najib's leadership but it is one which was attained not on a level playing field. If BN did not use money to entice the voters, if it let the media to report without fear and favour, if it allowed a healthy debate between Kamal and Zaid, if the voters were allowed to vote without a third party's interference, if it let the Election Commission (EC) to act independently, then, yes, BN's victory in Hulu Selangor, is indeed an endorsement of Najib's leadership. Having said all of these, I would say that BN's victory in Hulu Selangor is not Najib's best performance yet. So, he and BN cannot be complacent.

My take on the by-election is that the Hulu Selangor voters voted for development (money) than change. Change might be something that can be easily swallowed in the US (in the case of Obama's presidential victory) but in Malaysia it is not the case. If the Opposition is banking on the word "change" to stay relevant, then it has to educate Malaysians what it entails and how it matters to them. Otherwise, they will view development (read, again, money) as far more important that change. Also, the Opposition cannot solely depend on the public persona of its key leaders to initiate sweeping reform in the country. It has to strengthen its grassroots party machineries and search for young, aggressive and dynamic blood to steer the party. At the rate the Opposition is going, I do not think it is capable of providing any strong challenge to BN let alone take over the government in the upcoming general elections. Not yet. I see the Opposition's performance in Sabah and it is quite appalling.