*This piece is based on a talk I delivered at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Brunei Darussalam.
*Tables and figures are omitted for space.
Introduction
Much attention has been given to Sabah after the 2008 general elections. This is understandable as Sabah contributed a substantial number of parliamentary seats to the national parliament, without which the BN would have lost power. In order to see this clearly, it is important to look at Sabah’s electoral contribution in a proper perspective. There were 222 seats contested in the 2008 elections. Overall, BN won 140 seats, 8 more seats before it could command a two-thirds majority in parliament. For BN, having a two-thirds majority is a “prerequisite” for establishing a strong and stable government, a “standard” set by former Prime Minister (Tun) Mahathir Mohamad. Given Malaysia’s political convention, having two parties forming a coalition government is almost impossible. Of the 140 seats BN won, Sabah and Sarawak BN obtained 54 seats giving BN the advantage of winning the 2008 elections with a simple majority. If, for example, Sabah and Sarawak are left out from the calculation, it is BN with only 86 seats against the Opposition 80. With just eight-seat difference, BN would have risked losing power in the event of crossovers. Clearly, without the 54 seats from Sabah and Sarawak BN, BN would not be able to form a stable government.
With the 2008 election results, Sabah and Sarawak are BN’s fixed deposits and hold the key for BN’s survival. Sabah, however, is given more attention than Sarawak due to UMNO’s strong presence in the state. That is why it is easy to understand why more “political goods” are given to Sabah than Sarawak. Sabah, for instance, received the largest financial allocation of RM16 billion under the Ninth Malaysia Plan and four of Malaysia’s federal cabinet ministers are Sabahans while only two from Sarawak. Given the above backdrop, the paper aims to present the key political and economic outlook in Sabah in 2011.
Key Political Outlook
Political Dynamics in Sabah BN
Local politics is essentially controlled by Sabah UMNO and Musa Aman. Conflict, however, began to resurface following allegations of dominance by Musa’s allies. The first leader who dared to stick his neck out to challenge Musa openly was Chong Kah Kiat of LDP (Liberal Democratic Party). Chong was a member in Musa’s cabinet who protested the latter’s decision to stop a contruction of a religious statue in Kudat. Chong alleged that the decision was personal following his order to stop a construction project supervised by Musa’s Ministry of Finance on the idyllic Sipadan Island. The spat between the two leaders reached its climax when both decided to fight it out in court. The court’s decision, however, favoured Musa. After Chong, another LDP leader went to the open to challenge Musa stating that he could no longer work with Musa. Musa appeared to be successful in making sure that the “mini rebellion” in Sabah BN did not affect his leadership. Others in Sabah BN appeared to be supporting him, thanks to Musa’s skillful political maneuverings in keeping the “rebels” tamed.
The Bajau Challenge
As the second largest ethnic group in Sabah, Musa faces a strong challenge from the Bajau community. Even though a substantial number of the Bajaus are Sabah UMNO members, some are not happy with the alledged domination of the “Malays” led by Musa. The three Bajau leaders who pose a threat to Musa’s leadership are Salleh Said Keruak, Amirkahar Mustapha and Pandikar Amin Mulia—also known as the”big three” in USBO (United Sabah Bajau Organisation). Except for Amirkahar, Salleh and Pandikar wield a significance influence among the Bajau community. Sabah UMNO is anxious about the rise of USBO whose re-branding in 2006 was seen as an attempt to replace Sabah UMNO as a party to represent the Muslims in Sabah. When Musa decided to drop all three as candidates in the 2008 elections, it was seen as not more than an attempt to chip away the Bajau influence in Sabah UMNO. Musa, however, was quick to prevent dissatisfaction among the Bajau community by giving Salleh and Pandikar important roles in government. Salleh was appointed as Science Adviser to the Chief Minister and recently as Speaker of the State Legislative Assembly while Pandikar, with Musa’s strong endorsement, was appointed as Speaker of the Dewan Rakyat (House of Representatives). The Bajau factor will remain an important political challenge for Musa to overcome.
The Kadazandusun Challenge
Apart from the Bajau factor, Musa also needs to ensure that his Kadazandusun support remain intact. The Kadazandusun is the largest ethnic group in Sabah accounting for 17 percent of Sabah’s total population. While the Bajau community wanted to have a greater say in Sabah UMNO, the Kadazandusun, on the other hand, demanded that a proper power arrangement in the state be introduced. The voice of the Kadazandusun community is essentially coming from PBS (Parti Bersatu Sabah) which is the largest Kadazandusun-based party in the state. In its party congress, PBS suggested that the power sharing arragement in Sabah should be based on 70:30 ratio. This means, if there are 10 vacant political positions in a PBS-controlled constituency, seven should be appointed among its members while the rest from other parties.
While no visible changes could be seen after such demand was made, Musa seems to be continuing to enjoy the Kadazandusun support through the Huguan Siou Joseph Pairin Kitingan. The issue of power sharing came to the fore once again after PBS demanded that the new Mayor of Kota Kinabalu be given to a qualified Kadazandusun. The present Mayor is closely related to Musa and is a Muslim. Apart from PBS, other ethnic groups across the political divides also wanted Musa to appoint their own leaders to the post. After much speculation, Musa finally agreed to appoint a Kadazandusun from Ranau as the new Mayor for Kota Kinabalu. PBS is synonymous with the fight for state rights and autonomy. PBS, however, has been criticised for being too “soft” on issues such as illegal immigrants, regional autonomy and economic imbalance between East and West Malaysia. PBS supporters argue that it is more politically viable to talk about these issue behind close door rather than openly and Pairin, it seems, prefers not to use a confrontational approach in pursuing the Sabah issues. As far the the PBS support to Musa is concerned, the Kadazandusun support remain intact and will not pose a serious challenge to Sabah UMNO.
Another important aspect to ensure a continued political stability in Sabah is federal-state relations. Sabah’s history has shown that the role of the Federal Government is crucial in determing a stable State Government. Classic examples can be seen during the reign of Mustapha Harun, Harris Salleh and Joseph Pairin Kitingan. Mustapha, who courted with the federal leaders under Tunku Abdul Rahman had to give up power after Abdul Rahman’s succesor Abdul Razak initiated the formation of BERJAYA (Bersatu Rakyat Jelata Sabah) to topple Mustapha’s USNO (United Sabah National Organisation). Musa Hitam, the then Deputy Prime Minister was instrumental in Salleh’s fall and Pairin’s rise to power; and with the fourth Prime Minister Mahathir’s role, Pairin was left seeing PBS disintegrated in 1994.
Musa has learnt the lesson well and has been tactful in ensuring that federal-state relations remain integral to Sabah’s political stability. The speculations that say that Musa is not in good terms with Prime Minister Najib are rather weak to presume a change of leadership in Sabah anytime soon. If it is true that Najib had wanted his “proxy” Shafie Apdal, the UMNO Chief in Semporna, to lead Sabah, it is not only a wrong political calculation but a risky move which could affect Najib’s popularity in Sabah. Shafie, for one, is not based in Sabah and is considered as an outsider among Sabah UMNO’s rank and file. If indeed the war to gain political supremacy in the state exists, Musa seems to have the advantage to hold on to power as he enjoys a strong local support.
Whither the Opposition?
The expectation was high for the Opposition to provide a challenge to Sabah BN. After introducing Sabah PKR, Anwar promised to return political autonomy to Sabah. Support for Sabah PKR was overwhelming at the height of its formation in Sabah. If the 2008 elections results are used as a barometer for the Opposition’s strength, it could be said that the Opposition was relatively popular among the Kadazandusun voters. A closer look at the results indicate a swing toward the Opposition in the Kadazandusun areas. At the state level, the PBS’s share of the Kadazandusun votes was 32.91 percent while Sabah PKR 33.6 percent (Table 1). Sabah PKR also appeared to obtain more popular votes (35.02 percent) at the parliament level compared to PBS 24.55 percent. The results show that Sabah PKR managed to increase its popularity among the Kadazandusun voters. There are two main reasons to account for this swing. First, some Kadazandusuns were attracted to Sabah PKR’s promise to restore political autonomy in Sabah. Second, some were disappointed with Joseph Pairin Kitingan’s leadership and his failure in addressing issues such as illegal immigrants, regional economic imbalance and so on. They saw Sabah PKR as an “alternative” to PBS.
Sabah PKR, however, failed to maintain its strong presence in Sabah. Internal conflicts and squabblings among its leaders have weakened Sabah PKR. It faced a major crisis after Jeffrey Kitingan withdrew from the party and formed an NGO called UBF (United Borneo Front). Crisis in Sabah PKR intensified after its chief Pajudin Nordin resigned and joined Sabah UMNO. The introduction of a Presidential Council during the interim period before crisis in Sabah PKR is solved will do little to bring Sabah PKR to its former glory. Unless new breed of leaders with fresh and progressive ideas introduced, Sabah PKR will not be able to give real challenge to Musa and Sabah BN. With the continuing and unsettled problems in Sabah PKR, Musa has moved a step further in consolidating his power by ensuring that support for Sabah BN is solidified. With the 13th general election looms, the prospect of Sabah BN to retaining power is bright. Compared to his counterpart in Sarawak who is battling to stay in power, Musa will continue to lead Sabah as long as he is able to unite the Sabah BN parties and to maintain good relations with the Federal Government. It is worth noting that when presenting the 2011 State Budget, Musa announced an increase in the special allocation given to state constituency of RM1 million from RM600,000 previously. Musa also announced an increase in allocation to help the needy in each consituency to RM100,000. With the popularity of the “politics of development” among the rural people, Musa is sure having their support intact.
Key Economic Outlook
Sabah has registered a positive trade balance between 2006 and 2009 (Figure 1). This may be due to high demand for palm oil and crude petroleum worldwide. From January to June 2010, palm oil and crude petroleum accounted for 33 percent and 38 percent of Sabah’s commodities export (Figure 2). Sabah’s economy is set to be robust if the demand for these two commodities remain high. Sabah’s economy is also expected to register a healthy growth next year with the arrival of 2.5 million tourists that could earn the state more than RM5 billion in revenue. With the slogan “High Yiled, Longer Stay, Less Is More, tourism industry is set to play an important role in Sabah’s economic development.
Sabah has seen its GDP increasing consistently from 2002 to 2006 (Figure 3). In 2007, Sabah GDP’s was RM27 billion and increased by about 7 percent to RM29 billion in 2008. Along with the increase in GDP is an increase in Sabah’s per capita income. In 2007, per capita income in Sabah was RM12,583 and increased to RM17,239 in 2008 (Figure 4). While Musa and the Sabah BN have reason to smile for Sabah’s healthy economic growth, more have to be done to address a number of socio-economic concerns. The incidence of overty remains high in Sabah at 23 percent compared to national average of 6 percent. The World Bank’s calculation for poverty in Sabah is even higher at more than 23 percent (Figure 5). Sabah has also registered high incidence of hardcore poverty at 7 percent compared to national average of 1.2 percent. Unemployment rate in Sabah is also high at 6.1 percent in the first quarter of 2009 compared to national average of 4.0 percent. To address the problem of poverty, Sabah has allocated RM162 million to initiate poverty eradication excercises. On top of this allocation is the Federal Government’s assistance of RM40 million under the 1 Azam Programme.
Sabah is also expected to benefit from the ETP (Economic Transformation Plan) through the 71 high-income projects earmarked for the state. 25 of such projects will be developed in rural areas while the rest in urban areas. The projects are not only expected to create jobs for the local people but to increase the state’s GDP and income level. The main challenge for the Sabah BN, however, is to generate economic growth through domestic-initiated investments which could add value to Sabah’s economic strengths. The promises made to develop the SDC (Sabah Development Corridor) must be fulfilled through sound and effective economic policies. The onus is on Musa and Sabah BN to prove that the SDC is not more than a political gimmick but a practical economic plan to develop Sabah.
Conclusion
With the present political atmosphere, it is expected that Sabah BN will continue to lead Sabah and that Musa will continue to helm the government. The Opposition appears to be unable to pose a real challenge due to internal conflicts. Even though Sabah’s economy has registered a healthy growth, there are concerns about the incidence of poverty and unemployment that the government must address.
