The RCI: mother of all “campaign” issues
With the general election scheduled to be sometime early or mid this year, the country’s political landscape is fast changing. In Sabah, the issue of RCI has gained momentum. It has been used as a “bargaining tool” by both the BN component parties and the Opposition. Prime Minister Najib Razak has yet to publicly announce the establishment of the RCI but some in the state’s political circles have confirmed that the prime minister has in principle agreed to set up the RCI to address the problem of illegal immigrants in Sabah. Najib cannot afford not to agree as doing so may risk the BN’s chances of retaining Sabah. Indications are strong that if the RCI is not established, at least two of BN component parties, PBS and UPKO will leave the ruling coalition. For Sabah UMNO, in particular, PBS leaving the BN could weaken its support among the Kadazandusuns. Sabah UMNO also cannot afford to lose the PBS as it has support across the diverse Sabah society.
The Opposition has been quick to blame Sabah UMNO for the delay in the establishment of the RCI. Perhaps due to pressures from various quarters, Sabah UMNO information chief Sapawi Ahmad had no choice but to say it publicly that Sabah UMNO supports the RCI. But again, it does not stop the speculation that Sabah UMNO is against the RCI as Sabah UMNO chief Musa Aman has been somewhat evasive when asked to comment on the issue of illegal immigrants. With Sabah UMNO’s public statement in support of the RCI, the onus is now on Najib to decide when the RCI is going to be officially formed, before or after the election. He can choose to announce it before the election to boost the BN’s popularity and to get the RCI to work later after the terms of reference of the RCI are finalised. Whatever Najib’s calculation is, he needs to ensure that the RCI’s terms of work do not put UMNO’s head on the chopping board. Do not forget, most, if not all, of the Sabah UMNO members (including Musa) are implicated in the influx of illegal immigrants into Sabah. In the months to come, the RCI will remain an important issue and will continue to be articulated by the BN component parties and the Opposition.
Can Jeffrey’s STAR “shine” this time?
The maverick politician, Jeffrey Kitingan, who left the PKR in 2010 yet again made everyone surprised with his decision to lead the dormant Sarawak-based party STAR in Sabah. Close to 3000 people attended the party’s launching at the KDCA on January 6, 2012. Jeffrey made it clear that STAR will be an equal partner in the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) in the race to topple the BN in Sabah. This means, instead of contesting under the PR, STAR will lead another opposition coalition consisting of state-based parties in Sabah. Some have called Jeffrey power crazy and a “frog” but no one should underestimate his influence in particular among the Kadazandusuns. When the PKR came to Sabah in 1999, it was not well accepted by the electorate. As a small party with little clout, it lost badly in the 2004 election. When Jeffrey joined the PKR in 2006, he was able to “re-package” the party according to the general sentiments of the Sabah electorate. Jeffrey’s effort paid off. In the 2008 election, the PKR’s popular votes especially in the Kadazandusun areas had increased tremendously. Surprisingly too, the PKR obtained more popular votes than the PBS in the Kadazandusun areas. Unfortunately, Jeffrey, seen as a rising star in PKR was regarded by Anwar and the PKR federal leaders as a threat to their interests in Sabah. Jeffrey’s Borneo Agenda was also not wholly supported by Anwar. This disappointed Jeffrey and he did not wait long to leave the PKR and to establish the UBF (United Borneo Front). But the UBF could not be registered as a political party. Some said that the ROS (Registrar of Societies) was not happy with the word “Borneo” as it carries a strong regional outlook. Now with STAR, Jeffrey is set to provide a strong challenge to BN and PKR. If the PKR fails to strike an amicable deal with Jeffrey, its chances of denying the BN’s two-thirds majority would be substantially reduced. Simply put, the PKR cannot exclude STAR in its plan to topple the BN. And STAR’s chances of making an impact depend largely on Jeffrey’s ability to re-articulate his Borneo Agenda through his new party.
AMANAH, a third force in Sabah?
What’s with the AMANAH (Angkatan Amanah Merdeka) spreading its wing to Sabah? So far, AMANAH is not regarded as a potential threat, both to BN and the Opposition. It is an NGO led by Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah. AMANAH’s aim is to return Malaysia to where the founding fathers wanted it to be. In the past months, talks have been rife that Tengku Razaleigh will turn AMANAH into a political party. But this depends on whether he will be retained as a candidate in his constituency. Tengku Razaleigh himself is unsure about AMANAH’s future. In Sabah, AMANAH is led by Wilfred Bumburing who is rumoured to leave the BN. When AMANAH deputy president Sheikh Fadzir came to Sabah to meet with AMANAH members, most agreed that the NGO be turned into a political party. But then again, it all depends on Tengku Razaleigh’s next move. Even if AMANAH becomes a political party, it will not be able to give any strong impact nationally and in Sabah. Given the sentiment towards semenanjung-based parties in Sabah, AMANAH moving in would not change the state’s current political landscape.
So, one could expect that more new parties will emerge in Sabah soon, not to mention a swarm of individuals offering themselves to contest. Sabah recorded a record number of independent candidates contesting in the 2004 election. It is likely that such a trend will happen again in the upcoming election. There are too many “political heroes” in Sabah wanting to make a difference but only a handful have seriously shown that they have a strong policy platform to execute real change.
