Translate

Wednesday 9 April 2008

post election scenario in sabah

sabah and sarawak the power brokers

one cannot deny the fact that sabah and Sarawak have contributed immensely towards bn's victory in the 2008 election. going by the number of seats contributed by sabah's and sarawak's bn component parties, they deserve better attention by the federal government. the stark difference between the two states is that sarawak has not been that demanding as has been sabah. two of sabah's mps recently resigned as a mark of protest to abdullah's decision not to give more representation to sabah's mps particularly those from UMNO. sarawak, on the other hand, has been somewhat measured and has so far not demanded any strong demands--except for a few dayak leaders who wanted their community's presence in the federal cabinet be more recognised.

resignation on a matter of principle or personal agenda?

there are two ways to explain why the sabah leaders have not been satisfied. first, sabah umno leaders have enjoyed strong patronage relationships from their peninsular counterparts. sabah umno's massive win in the 2008 election has given the party more bargaining power than ever before. in politics numbers make a lot of difference. in 1994 for example the pbs government fell from power when a number of its assemblymen crossed over to umno and to other federal-initiated political parties. the bn then had the numbers and pbs had no choice but to give up power in another attempt by the powers-that-be to deny the democratic decision of the electorate. some were quick to say that the reason for the two mps to resign was because they were not happy with the way the federal government has treated sabah. a retired senior government officer whom the writer interviewed said that one of the mps told him that sabah has been turned into a "fool" again after the entire episode. simply put, what the mp was trying to say is, sabah has always been sidelined in a number of pressing issues such as the illegal immigrant problem and the oil royalty.

another retired senior government officer gave a different perception. he believed the two mps resigned simply because they were not happy that they were not getting what they wanted. one of the mps said that he has been in his former position for too long and that it is about time to give way to the younger generation. no matter how you interprete it, it might mean that he's tired of waiting to move up to the ladder of power. seen from this light, the resignation of the two mps could be both driven by principles and personal agenda. so which one do you think they may be falling into?

second, the two mps might want to trigger the defection of the bn mps into the pakatan rakyat led by anwar. anwar has been criss-crossing the country trying to lure bn mps to join pakatan rakyat. again if anwar gets the number (30 seats to be exact), the abdullah administration could easily fall from power and thus signalling the end of bn rule in malaysia for the first time. but whether the two mps are really serious in joining anwar is everyone's guess. and the fact that there's no strong "signal" from sabah bn mps to jump ship only indicates that sabah bn remains a formidable party in sabah.

beware of the opportunist politicians

abdullah's indecisiveness proves to be one of the factors contributing to the calls for his resignation. his decision to come down to sabah himself to hear the grouses of sabah leaders shows that abdullah's is giving to much ear to a bunch of opportunist politicians whose motive could be personal rather than rakyat-driven. for sure, abdullah's collective approach to politics could backfire on him as sabah umno leaders are waiting for the right time to demand something from him, however questionable that demand might be. demanding for a more representation in the federal cabinet is one thing, demanding for the federal government to take the sabah problems seriously is another matter. what is pressing at this point of time, to my mind, is not the former but the latter. numbers make no different if they do not translate into concrete action and solution. so it is better to have only one effective mp in the parliament than many mps if no practical solutions are offered.

perhaps it is too late for abdullah to check who are really figthing for the rakyat and who are not. this is because his visit to sabah to persuade the sabah leaders to stick with bn shows the obvious indecisiveness on the part of abdullah's leadership. when one is indecisive, it is said, one could be easily trapped into the dirty political game of the political opportunists. abdullah has to be careful in dealing with some sabah politicians who have been in the state's political scene for too long but have contributed little, or none at all, to the state's development. in order to put his leadership back on track, abdullah has to do two things: to be firm in whatever decision he has made and to put his house (i.e. UMNO and its coalition allies) back into order. a way to deal with the political opportunists in sabah is to regularly check their performance and to reprimand them if they under-perform.

where should the pakatan rakyat in sabah go from here?

a few pakatan people i met are quite excited about the fact that pakatan rakyat would form the government soon when it could convince bn mps to cross-over. so excited they were that they forgot that the rakyat had made a choice in sabah, that is, they wanted bn to lead the state for another term. forgive me for sounding a bit pro-government. this is not actually my attention. i think what the pakatan should do is to form a formidable alliance and to convince the rakyat that they could be the better alternative to bn in sabah. grabbing power from the bn would not only be ethtically wrong, it would also deny the voice of the rakyat who had made their choice. though there is only one opposition adun in the state assembly, again this should not make the pakatan feel inferior. the pakatan leaders should begin from now on visiting affected areas that need attention, i.e. those areas which are underdeveloped and are isolated in the mainstream economic progress. the pakatan leaders should ask themselves: what can we do for sabah that the bn leaders cant or choose not to do? when the rakyat feels confident that they have the alternative, i am surely it will not be impossible for the pakatan rakyat to take over the government from bn. simply put, you need to show us your worth first then we will give our vote to ensure your victory in the coming elections. crossing party does not reflect the rakyat's democratic decision, as it will erode their convidence in the democratic institution that we long want to uphold.