Is Bersatu’s entry into Sabah inevitable?

Arnold Puyok

Prime Minister and Bersatu Chairman Tun Mahathir Mohamad seems to give a signal to Warisan that Bersatu’s plan to spread its wing to Sabah is Bersatu’s prerogative and not Warisan’s.

So, is Bersatu’s entry into Sabah inevitable? Can Warisan convince Bersatu to stay away from Sabah?

Let’s address the first question and put it in the wider context of national politics. Sabah is heading for a change and this is evident since 2008. National-based parties have slowly gained popularity in Sabah. A growing number of Sabahans think that national-based parties are capable of championing state interests as well. They believe that Sabah issues can be brought straight to the attention of the federal lawmakers in parliament.

And if the results of the last three general elections (including GE14) are anything to go by, they show that the national-based parties are more popular than the local-based parties. In GE14, local-based parties like PHRS, PPRS, PKS and PCS contested but lost.

The so-called Gabungan Sabah only garnered five per cent of the popular votes in the Malay-Muslim Bumiputera areas, non-Malay Muslim Bumiputera (17 per cent), Chinese (four per cent) and mixed (six per cent) (Table 1).

STAR Sabah performed slightly better, winning one parliamentary seat in Keningau and one state seat in Bingkor. But like the rest, it was defeated in other areas.

The reasons for the dismal performance of the local-based parties will be the subject of another discussion. But generally, Sabahans were looking for the alternative parties and leaders to represent them. And the claim by the local-based parties that only they can best represent the interests of Sabahans does not hold water anymore. STAR Sabah’s marginal win in Keningau and Bingkor was attributed to a multi-cornered contest, involving strong candidates from Warisan, BN and PH.     

PKR and DAP managed to improve their electoral performance this time, winning eight and six seats respectively at the state and parliamentary levels.

So, given the electoral success of PKR and DAP, there are no reasons why Bersatu would not want to join the fray and to compete particularly in the Malay-Muslim Bumiputera constituencies.

Observers have argued that the direct involvement of national-based parties in Sabah was precipitated with UMNO’s entry in 1991. This is widely regarded as a form of federal intervention in local politics. The presence of UMNO, MCA, PKR and DAP has broken the regional barrier that has insulated Sabah politics for so long. This “nationalisation of local politics” is set to change the course of Sabah politics in years to come.

Now, let’s move on to the second question.

In GE14, BN and the PH-Warisan alliance were equally popular in the Malay-Muslim Bumiputera constituencies (Table 1). Warisan might be successful in ending UMNO’s dominance in the Malay-Muslim Bumiputera areas. However, there are many UMNO’s loyal supporters who remain undecided on what to do next. Those who have left UMNO are eyeing for a new platform to make a comeback. This is where Bersatu could play a role -- to fill the void left by UMNO in the Malay-Muslim Bumiputera areas. 

So, based on this assessment, it would be highly likely that Bersatu would spread its wing to Sabah. If this happens, it would put Warisan in a dilemma. Warisan is convinced that it could gain the support of Sabahans based on its "multiracial" outlook, but the Malay-Muslim Bumiputera communities in Sabah may be more attracted to Bersatu that aspires to emerge as the alternative party to serve their interest.

Table 1 Popular Votes Won by Parties According to Constituency Type at State Level

Party/ Coalition	Popular Vote According to Constituency Type (%)
	Malay-Muslim Bumiputera	Non-Malay Muslim Bumiputera (KDM)	Chinese	Mixed
BN	45.95	45.70	19.86	29.57
Pakatan Harapan-Warisan Alliance	46.30	32.55	74.84	63.43
Gabungan Sabah	4.58	17.10	4.11	5.73
Other	3.17	4.65	1.20	1.28

Source: calculated from the Election Commission (EC) and “The Star Online GE14” (https://election.thestar.com.my/).