Saturday, 16 April 2011
Outcomes of the Sarawak election: Some key observations
Now that the results of the Sarawak election have been released and that the BN has managed to re-capture the state with more than two-thirds majority. Pundits have predicted earlier that the BN will not be able to retain its two-thirds majority and that the Opposition will trail from behind very closely. But if the results are anything to go by, they prove the pundits wrong and many have under-estimated the onslaught of the BN’s election machineries especially in rural Sarawak. My prediction that the Opposition will win handsomely in urban and Chinese-based areas proved to be correct. And the biggest casualty for BN in these areas was George Chan the Deputy Chief Minister and President of SUPP. SUPP could have also lost in Senadin but thanks to postal votes its candidate there Lee Kim Shin survived. While it is too early to tell the reasons behind SUPP’s misfortune, it is clear that the Chinese voters are not happy with the party’s performance all these years. It seems that the rural people have renewed their support to the BN except in Ba’Kelalan where they voted for the PKR candidate Baru Bian. After a third attempt, Baru finally managed to win in Ba’Kelalan. But his dream of becoming the Chief Minister has not materialised as Sarawak PKR has failed to live up to expectation. Here, the role of a candidate’s personality and character is important. Baru is a former church elder who has a strong following among the SIB-professed Lun Bawang and Kelabit voters. I wrote before that prior to polling, Lun Bawang and Kelabit voters had been receiving smses persuading them to vote for Baru. Apart from Baru’s religious affiliation and personality, the SPDP election machinery in Ba’Kelalan is partly to be blamed for the BN’s loss. Until the nomination was made, no one knew for sure who was going to take on Baru. Lack of preparation as well as failure to counter Baru’s NCR land abuse allegations contributed to the BN’s failure in Ba’Kelalan. Quite simply, no one in Ba’Kelalan is willing to take on Baru. This is understandable as almost everyone in Ba’Kelalan is related and where social cohesion is strong. Baru will remain a headache for the BN until the next state election. His presence in the state assembly will surely boost the Opposition’s credibility but the extent to which he will measure up is yet to be seen. Overall, however, Sarawak PKR’s performance has been disappointing. Winning just three seats out of 49 contested is rather too negligible to “ubah” the landscape of Sarawak politics. This means depending on Anwar’s “ceramahs” alone will not suffice to jolt the rural voters. Sarawak PKR has to do more in Sarawak. Grooming young and potential leaders is one thing and encouraging its members to fight for real issues is quite another if PKR wants to “ubah” Sarawak politics. The “star” of the election is the DAP who managed to win 12 seats out of 15 contested. SNAP has failed miserably in the election failing to win any seat even in areas it was tipped to win. All the key Iban leaders of SNAP lost in the election. This shows that some voters placed more emphasis on the personality of the candidates than their party affiliation. So, why did the BN win in rural areas and where had the Opposition gone wrong? Many have blamed money politics for the Opposition’s loss in the rural areas. While this might be the case, factor such as strong affinity to the BN also played an important role. The rural voters have been long associated with the BN and it takes more than just monetary benefits to break their loyalty to the ruling party. Lack of access to the alternative media and the culture of dependency that prevails in the rural community also ensured the BN’s comfortable majorities in the rural areas. As we can see, the Malay-Melanau and Bidayuh seats were won by BN, as expected, so were the Iban-majority seats. It is, however, too early to tell about the overall outcomes of the election as more in-depth analyses are needed to examine the voting pattern. Personally, I am interested to study Ba’Kelalan where Baru Bian won after a third attempt. Did the Lun Bawang, Kelabit and other Orang Ulu tribes in Ba’Kelalan reject Taib Mahmud’s “politics of development”? If most of the rural areas rejected the Opposition, then, why was it accepted in Ba’Kelalan. What was the message that the voters in Ba’Kelalan want to show? More to come...
Monday, 4 April 2011
A David and Goliath Battle in Ba' Kelalan
The guessing game continues The BN kept the people guessing when it left the BN candidacy in Ba' Kelalan vacant. Ba' Kelalan is one of the hot seats contested in the upcoming Sarawak election. When the list of candidates was announced, no name was mentioned to represent BN in Ba' Kelalan. And the speculations about Idris Jala's first foray into the political arena were squashed after he denied that he was the BN candidate to be fielded. The reason behind the incumbent Balang Rining's exclusion remains unclear but many have speculated that the BN cannot afford to field a less politically savvy person to take on Baru Bian who is a popular NCR (Native Customary Rights) lawyer in the Lun Bawang heartlands. A source related to me that the BN candidate who will fight Baru is a young lawyer from Ba' Kelalan. Until the final candidate is announced nothing is really certain. Whoever the candidate is, he must be willing to debate with Baru about the contentious NCR issue. Baru has long established himself as a native lawyer "fighting" for the people's land which he believes to have been "robbed" by the State Government for development purposes. He invited Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud to debate the issue but the latter had shown no interest to argue with Baru in public. He did respond to Baru's allegations of the NCR land abuse but some were not happy because Taib failed to raise doubts in the issues brought against him. Are the evidences too overwhelming for Taib to counter-argue? Or, is Baru too smart to debate with Taib? I, for one, is doubtful that any debate will ever take place in our elections, what more in Sarawak. It will come as a surprise to me if debates are slotted by the aspiring candidates in their campaigns. The Idris Jala factor It is not just the NCR land issue that has established Baru's leadership among the largely Lun Bawang community in Ba' Kelalan. His characters and Christian faith are also among the factors that make him the most likely candidate to win. The two previous elections (by election in 2004 and state election in 2006) are a testimony to Baru's popularity in Ba' Kelalan. Among the interesting issue to see is whether the Kelabits--the Lun Bawangs' "cultural cousins"--will vote for or against the BN this time around. They have been known as staunch supporters to the BN. The famous Malaysian Kelabit Idris Jala's prominence as a government troubleshooter and a business maestro will further boost the Kelabits' support to the BN. Had the plan to field Jala as a candidate materialised, it could have spelt trouble for Baru as the former is also an equally popular figure among the Kelabits and the Lun Bawangs. But Jala has denied that he is the "mysterious" candidate to represent the BN. And he is tactful enough by not associating himself with the Sarawak election. Jala so far has maintained a high level of professionalism and that he knows where his real calling is. However, it remains to be seen if Jala will go down to the election ground to campaign for the BN. If he does then Baru will have a tough time convincing the Lunbawangs and Kelabits to change their minds. Whoever the BN candidate in Ba' Kelalan is, he must be shrewd enough to overcome Baru's combination of wit, charisma and religious passion. Some of the Lun Bawangs and Kelabits are not easily duped into accepting the politics of development. The Lun Bawang and Kelabit communities have produced a substantial number of professionals and have strong middle class societies. The professional and educated Lun Bawangs and Kelabits will play a prominent role in determining the winner and loser of the election in Ba' Kelalan. The role of religion Another factor that will also determine the outcome of the battle in Ba' Kelalan is religion. Prior to the announcement of the candidates, the Lun Bawangs and Kelabits received messages via sms containing persuasive calls for the two communities to vote for Baru. Some even conducted prayer rallies to ensure his victory. For those who know Baru, he is a staunch Christian and an elder at an SIB church in Kuching. Apart from conducting a regular Bible study at his house, Baru is also active in church and gives sermons regularly. Prospect for the BN candidate In the final analysis, Baru's opponent will have to look into the former's track record in order to dislodge his influence. But no matter who the person is the battle in Ba' Kelalan will see a showdown between David and Goliath. Read more: "Whither Representative Democracy in Malaysia? The Ba' Kelalan By Election" by Arnold Puyok, Contemporary Southeast Asia (Singapore) "Voting Pattern and Issue in the Ba' Kelalan State Election" by Arnold Puyok, Asian Political Science Journal (UK) *Both articles are available upon request
Monday, 21 February 2011
What's in store for Sabah's politics and economy in 2011?
*This piece is based on a talk I delivered at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Brunei Darussalam.
*Tables and figures are omitted for space.
Introduction
Much attention has been given to Sabah after the 2008 general elections. This is understandable as Sabah contributed a substantial number of parliamentary seats to the national parliament, without which the BN would have lost power. In order to see this clearly, it is important to look at Sabah’s electoral contribution in a proper perspective. There were 222 seats contested in the 2008 elections. Overall, BN won 140 seats, 8 more seats before it could command a two-thirds majority in parliament. For BN, having a two-thirds majority is a “prerequisite” for establishing a strong and stable government, a “standard” set by former Prime Minister (Tun) Mahathir Mohamad. Given Malaysia’s political convention, having two parties forming a coalition government is almost impossible. Of the 140 seats BN won, Sabah and Sarawak BN obtained 54 seats giving BN the advantage of winning the 2008 elections with a simple majority. If, for example, Sabah and Sarawak are left out from the calculation, it is BN with only 86 seats against the Opposition 80. With just eight-seat difference, BN would have risked losing power in the event of crossovers. Clearly, without the 54 seats from Sabah and Sarawak BN, BN would not be able to form a stable government.
With the 2008 election results, Sabah and Sarawak are BN’s fixed deposits and hold the key for BN’s survival. Sabah, however, is given more attention than Sarawak due to UMNO’s strong presence in the state. That is why it is easy to understand why more “political goods” are given to Sabah than Sarawak. Sabah, for instance, received the largest financial allocation of RM16 billion under the Ninth Malaysia Plan and four of Malaysia’s federal cabinet ministers are Sabahans while only two from Sarawak. Given the above backdrop, the paper aims to present the key political and economic outlook in Sabah in 2011.
Key Political Outlook
Political Dynamics in Sabah BN
Local politics is essentially controlled by Sabah UMNO and Musa Aman. Conflict, however, began to resurface following allegations of dominance by Musa’s allies. The first leader who dared to stick his neck out to challenge Musa openly was Chong Kah Kiat of LDP (Liberal Democratic Party). Chong was a member in Musa’s cabinet who protested the latter’s decision to stop a contruction of a religious statue in Kudat. Chong alleged that the decision was personal following his order to stop a construction project supervised by Musa’s Ministry of Finance on the idyllic Sipadan Island. The spat between the two leaders reached its climax when both decided to fight it out in court. The court’s decision, however, favoured Musa. After Chong, another LDP leader went to the open to challenge Musa stating that he could no longer work with Musa. Musa appeared to be successful in making sure that the “mini rebellion” in Sabah BN did not affect his leadership. Others in Sabah BN appeared to be supporting him, thanks to Musa’s skillful political maneuverings in keeping the “rebels” tamed.
The Bajau Challenge
As the second largest ethnic group in Sabah, Musa faces a strong challenge from the Bajau community. Even though a substantial number of the Bajaus are Sabah UMNO members, some are not happy with the alledged domination of the “Malays” led by Musa. The three Bajau leaders who pose a threat to Musa’s leadership are Salleh Said Keruak, Amirkahar Mustapha and Pandikar Amin Mulia—also known as the”big three” in USBO (United Sabah Bajau Organisation). Except for Amirkahar, Salleh and Pandikar wield a significance influence among the Bajau community. Sabah UMNO is anxious about the rise of USBO whose re-branding in 2006 was seen as an attempt to replace Sabah UMNO as a party to represent the Muslims in Sabah. When Musa decided to drop all three as candidates in the 2008 elections, it was seen as not more than an attempt to chip away the Bajau influence in Sabah UMNO. Musa, however, was quick to prevent dissatisfaction among the Bajau community by giving Salleh and Pandikar important roles in government. Salleh was appointed as Science Adviser to the Chief Minister and recently as Speaker of the State Legislative Assembly while Pandikar, with Musa’s strong endorsement, was appointed as Speaker of the Dewan Rakyat (House of Representatives). The Bajau factor will remain an important political challenge for Musa to overcome.
The Kadazandusun Challenge
Apart from the Bajau factor, Musa also needs to ensure that his Kadazandusun support remain intact. The Kadazandusun is the largest ethnic group in Sabah accounting for 17 percent of Sabah’s total population. While the Bajau community wanted to have a greater say in Sabah UMNO, the Kadazandusun, on the other hand, demanded that a proper power arrangement in the state be introduced. The voice of the Kadazandusun community is essentially coming from PBS (Parti Bersatu Sabah) which is the largest Kadazandusun-based party in the state. In its party congress, PBS suggested that the power sharing arragement in Sabah should be based on 70:30 ratio. This means, if there are 10 vacant political positions in a PBS-controlled constituency, seven should be appointed among its members while the rest from other parties.
While no visible changes could be seen after such demand was made, Musa seems to be continuing to enjoy the Kadazandusun support through the Huguan Siou Joseph Pairin Kitingan. The issue of power sharing came to the fore once again after PBS demanded that the new Mayor of Kota Kinabalu be given to a qualified Kadazandusun. The present Mayor is closely related to Musa and is a Muslim. Apart from PBS, other ethnic groups across the political divides also wanted Musa to appoint their own leaders to the post. After much speculation, Musa finally agreed to appoint a Kadazandusun from Ranau as the new Mayor for Kota Kinabalu. PBS is synonymous with the fight for state rights and autonomy. PBS, however, has been criticised for being too “soft” on issues such as illegal immigrants, regional autonomy and economic imbalance between East and West Malaysia. PBS supporters argue that it is more politically viable to talk about these issue behind close door rather than openly and Pairin, it seems, prefers not to use a confrontational approach in pursuing the Sabah issues. As far the the PBS support to Musa is concerned, the Kadazandusun support remain intact and will not pose a serious challenge to Sabah UMNO.
Another important aspect to ensure a continued political stability in Sabah is federal-state relations. Sabah’s history has shown that the role of the Federal Government is crucial in determing a stable State Government. Classic examples can be seen during the reign of Mustapha Harun, Harris Salleh and Joseph Pairin Kitingan. Mustapha, who courted with the federal leaders under Tunku Abdul Rahman had to give up power after Abdul Rahman’s succesor Abdul Razak initiated the formation of BERJAYA (Bersatu Rakyat Jelata Sabah) to topple Mustapha’s USNO (United Sabah National Organisation). Musa Hitam, the then Deputy Prime Minister was instrumental in Salleh’s fall and Pairin’s rise to power; and with the fourth Prime Minister Mahathir’s role, Pairin was left seeing PBS disintegrated in 1994.
Musa has learnt the lesson well and has been tactful in ensuring that federal-state relations remain integral to Sabah’s political stability. The speculations that say that Musa is not in good terms with Prime Minister Najib are rather weak to presume a change of leadership in Sabah anytime soon. If it is true that Najib had wanted his “proxy” Shafie Apdal, the UMNO Chief in Semporna, to lead Sabah, it is not only a wrong political calculation but a risky move which could affect Najib’s popularity in Sabah. Shafie, for one, is not based in Sabah and is considered as an outsider among Sabah UMNO’s rank and file. If indeed the war to gain political supremacy in the state exists, Musa seems to have the advantage to hold on to power as he enjoys a strong local support.
Whither the Opposition?
The expectation was high for the Opposition to provide a challenge to Sabah BN. After introducing Sabah PKR, Anwar promised to return political autonomy to Sabah. Support for Sabah PKR was overwhelming at the height of its formation in Sabah. If the 2008 elections results are used as a barometer for the Opposition’s strength, it could be said that the Opposition was relatively popular among the Kadazandusun voters. A closer look at the results indicate a swing toward the Opposition in the Kadazandusun areas. At the state level, the PBS’s share of the Kadazandusun votes was 32.91 percent while Sabah PKR 33.6 percent (Table 1). Sabah PKR also appeared to obtain more popular votes (35.02 percent) at the parliament level compared to PBS 24.55 percent. The results show that Sabah PKR managed to increase its popularity among the Kadazandusun voters. There are two main reasons to account for this swing. First, some Kadazandusuns were attracted to Sabah PKR’s promise to restore political autonomy in Sabah. Second, some were disappointed with Joseph Pairin Kitingan’s leadership and his failure in addressing issues such as illegal immigrants, regional economic imbalance and so on. They saw Sabah PKR as an “alternative” to PBS.
Sabah PKR, however, failed to maintain its strong presence in Sabah. Internal conflicts and squabblings among its leaders have weakened Sabah PKR. It faced a major crisis after Jeffrey Kitingan withdrew from the party and formed an NGO called UBF (United Borneo Front). Crisis in Sabah PKR intensified after its chief Pajudin Nordin resigned and joined Sabah UMNO. The introduction of a Presidential Council during the interim period before crisis in Sabah PKR is solved will do little to bring Sabah PKR to its former glory. Unless new breed of leaders with fresh and progressive ideas introduced, Sabah PKR will not be able to give real challenge to Musa and Sabah BN. With the continuing and unsettled problems in Sabah PKR, Musa has moved a step further in consolidating his power by ensuring that support for Sabah BN is solidified. With the 13th general election looms, the prospect of Sabah BN to retaining power is bright. Compared to his counterpart in Sarawak who is battling to stay in power, Musa will continue to lead Sabah as long as he is able to unite the Sabah BN parties and to maintain good relations with the Federal Government. It is worth noting that when presenting the 2011 State Budget, Musa announced an increase in the special allocation given to state constituency of RM1 million from RM600,000 previously. Musa also announced an increase in allocation to help the needy in each consituency to RM100,000. With the popularity of the “politics of development” among the rural people, Musa is sure having their support intact.
Key Economic Outlook
Sabah has registered a positive trade balance between 2006 and 2009 (Figure 1). This may be due to high demand for palm oil and crude petroleum worldwide. From January to June 2010, palm oil and crude petroleum accounted for 33 percent and 38 percent of Sabah’s commodities export (Figure 2). Sabah’s economy is set to be robust if the demand for these two commodities remain high. Sabah’s economy is also expected to register a healthy growth next year with the arrival of 2.5 million tourists that could earn the state more than RM5 billion in revenue. With the slogan “High Yiled, Longer Stay, Less Is More, tourism industry is set to play an important role in Sabah’s economic development.
Sabah has seen its GDP increasing consistently from 2002 to 2006 (Figure 3). In 2007, Sabah GDP’s was RM27 billion and increased by about 7 percent to RM29 billion in 2008. Along with the increase in GDP is an increase in Sabah’s per capita income. In 2007, per capita income in Sabah was RM12,583 and increased to RM17,239 in 2008 (Figure 4). While Musa and the Sabah BN have reason to smile for Sabah’s healthy economic growth, more have to be done to address a number of socio-economic concerns. The incidence of overty remains high in Sabah at 23 percent compared to national average of 6 percent. The World Bank’s calculation for poverty in Sabah is even higher at more than 23 percent (Figure 5). Sabah has also registered high incidence of hardcore poverty at 7 percent compared to national average of 1.2 percent. Unemployment rate in Sabah is also high at 6.1 percent in the first quarter of 2009 compared to national average of 4.0 percent. To address the problem of poverty, Sabah has allocated RM162 million to initiate poverty eradication excercises. On top of this allocation is the Federal Government’s assistance of RM40 million under the 1 Azam Programme.
Sabah is also expected to benefit from the ETP (Economic Transformation Plan) through the 71 high-income projects earmarked for the state. 25 of such projects will be developed in rural areas while the rest in urban areas. The projects are not only expected to create jobs for the local people but to increase the state’s GDP and income level. The main challenge for the Sabah BN, however, is to generate economic growth through domestic-initiated investments which could add value to Sabah’s economic strengths. The promises made to develop the SDC (Sabah Development Corridor) must be fulfilled through sound and effective economic policies. The onus is on Musa and Sabah BN to prove that the SDC is not more than a political gimmick but a practical economic plan to develop Sabah.
Conclusion
With the present political atmosphere, it is expected that Sabah BN will continue to lead Sabah and that Musa will continue to helm the government. The Opposition appears to be unable to pose a real challenge due to internal conflicts. Even though Sabah’s economy has registered a healthy growth, there are concerns about the incidence of poverty and unemployment that the government must address.
*Tables and figures are omitted for space.
Introduction
Much attention has been given to Sabah after the 2008 general elections. This is understandable as Sabah contributed a substantial number of parliamentary seats to the national parliament, without which the BN would have lost power. In order to see this clearly, it is important to look at Sabah’s electoral contribution in a proper perspective. There were 222 seats contested in the 2008 elections. Overall, BN won 140 seats, 8 more seats before it could command a two-thirds majority in parliament. For BN, having a two-thirds majority is a “prerequisite” for establishing a strong and stable government, a “standard” set by former Prime Minister (Tun) Mahathir Mohamad. Given Malaysia’s political convention, having two parties forming a coalition government is almost impossible. Of the 140 seats BN won, Sabah and Sarawak BN obtained 54 seats giving BN the advantage of winning the 2008 elections with a simple majority. If, for example, Sabah and Sarawak are left out from the calculation, it is BN with only 86 seats against the Opposition 80. With just eight-seat difference, BN would have risked losing power in the event of crossovers. Clearly, without the 54 seats from Sabah and Sarawak BN, BN would not be able to form a stable government.
With the 2008 election results, Sabah and Sarawak are BN’s fixed deposits and hold the key for BN’s survival. Sabah, however, is given more attention than Sarawak due to UMNO’s strong presence in the state. That is why it is easy to understand why more “political goods” are given to Sabah than Sarawak. Sabah, for instance, received the largest financial allocation of RM16 billion under the Ninth Malaysia Plan and four of Malaysia’s federal cabinet ministers are Sabahans while only two from Sarawak. Given the above backdrop, the paper aims to present the key political and economic outlook in Sabah in 2011.
Key Political Outlook
Political Dynamics in Sabah BN
Local politics is essentially controlled by Sabah UMNO and Musa Aman. Conflict, however, began to resurface following allegations of dominance by Musa’s allies. The first leader who dared to stick his neck out to challenge Musa openly was Chong Kah Kiat of LDP (Liberal Democratic Party). Chong was a member in Musa’s cabinet who protested the latter’s decision to stop a contruction of a religious statue in Kudat. Chong alleged that the decision was personal following his order to stop a construction project supervised by Musa’s Ministry of Finance on the idyllic Sipadan Island. The spat between the two leaders reached its climax when both decided to fight it out in court. The court’s decision, however, favoured Musa. After Chong, another LDP leader went to the open to challenge Musa stating that he could no longer work with Musa. Musa appeared to be successful in making sure that the “mini rebellion” in Sabah BN did not affect his leadership. Others in Sabah BN appeared to be supporting him, thanks to Musa’s skillful political maneuverings in keeping the “rebels” tamed.
The Bajau Challenge
As the second largest ethnic group in Sabah, Musa faces a strong challenge from the Bajau community. Even though a substantial number of the Bajaus are Sabah UMNO members, some are not happy with the alledged domination of the “Malays” led by Musa. The three Bajau leaders who pose a threat to Musa’s leadership are Salleh Said Keruak, Amirkahar Mustapha and Pandikar Amin Mulia—also known as the”big three” in USBO (United Sabah Bajau Organisation). Except for Amirkahar, Salleh and Pandikar wield a significance influence among the Bajau community. Sabah UMNO is anxious about the rise of USBO whose re-branding in 2006 was seen as an attempt to replace Sabah UMNO as a party to represent the Muslims in Sabah. When Musa decided to drop all three as candidates in the 2008 elections, it was seen as not more than an attempt to chip away the Bajau influence in Sabah UMNO. Musa, however, was quick to prevent dissatisfaction among the Bajau community by giving Salleh and Pandikar important roles in government. Salleh was appointed as Science Adviser to the Chief Minister and recently as Speaker of the State Legislative Assembly while Pandikar, with Musa’s strong endorsement, was appointed as Speaker of the Dewan Rakyat (House of Representatives). The Bajau factor will remain an important political challenge for Musa to overcome.
The Kadazandusun Challenge
Apart from the Bajau factor, Musa also needs to ensure that his Kadazandusun support remain intact. The Kadazandusun is the largest ethnic group in Sabah accounting for 17 percent of Sabah’s total population. While the Bajau community wanted to have a greater say in Sabah UMNO, the Kadazandusun, on the other hand, demanded that a proper power arrangement in the state be introduced. The voice of the Kadazandusun community is essentially coming from PBS (Parti Bersatu Sabah) which is the largest Kadazandusun-based party in the state. In its party congress, PBS suggested that the power sharing arragement in Sabah should be based on 70:30 ratio. This means, if there are 10 vacant political positions in a PBS-controlled constituency, seven should be appointed among its members while the rest from other parties.
While no visible changes could be seen after such demand was made, Musa seems to be continuing to enjoy the Kadazandusun support through the Huguan Siou Joseph Pairin Kitingan. The issue of power sharing came to the fore once again after PBS demanded that the new Mayor of Kota Kinabalu be given to a qualified Kadazandusun. The present Mayor is closely related to Musa and is a Muslim. Apart from PBS, other ethnic groups across the political divides also wanted Musa to appoint their own leaders to the post. After much speculation, Musa finally agreed to appoint a Kadazandusun from Ranau as the new Mayor for Kota Kinabalu. PBS is synonymous with the fight for state rights and autonomy. PBS, however, has been criticised for being too “soft” on issues such as illegal immigrants, regional autonomy and economic imbalance between East and West Malaysia. PBS supporters argue that it is more politically viable to talk about these issue behind close door rather than openly and Pairin, it seems, prefers not to use a confrontational approach in pursuing the Sabah issues. As far the the PBS support to Musa is concerned, the Kadazandusun support remain intact and will not pose a serious challenge to Sabah UMNO.
Another important aspect to ensure a continued political stability in Sabah is federal-state relations. Sabah’s history has shown that the role of the Federal Government is crucial in determing a stable State Government. Classic examples can be seen during the reign of Mustapha Harun, Harris Salleh and Joseph Pairin Kitingan. Mustapha, who courted with the federal leaders under Tunku Abdul Rahman had to give up power after Abdul Rahman’s succesor Abdul Razak initiated the formation of BERJAYA (Bersatu Rakyat Jelata Sabah) to topple Mustapha’s USNO (United Sabah National Organisation). Musa Hitam, the then Deputy Prime Minister was instrumental in Salleh’s fall and Pairin’s rise to power; and with the fourth Prime Minister Mahathir’s role, Pairin was left seeing PBS disintegrated in 1994.
Musa has learnt the lesson well and has been tactful in ensuring that federal-state relations remain integral to Sabah’s political stability. The speculations that say that Musa is not in good terms with Prime Minister Najib are rather weak to presume a change of leadership in Sabah anytime soon. If it is true that Najib had wanted his “proxy” Shafie Apdal, the UMNO Chief in Semporna, to lead Sabah, it is not only a wrong political calculation but a risky move which could affect Najib’s popularity in Sabah. Shafie, for one, is not based in Sabah and is considered as an outsider among Sabah UMNO’s rank and file. If indeed the war to gain political supremacy in the state exists, Musa seems to have the advantage to hold on to power as he enjoys a strong local support.
Whither the Opposition?
The expectation was high for the Opposition to provide a challenge to Sabah BN. After introducing Sabah PKR, Anwar promised to return political autonomy to Sabah. Support for Sabah PKR was overwhelming at the height of its formation in Sabah. If the 2008 elections results are used as a barometer for the Opposition’s strength, it could be said that the Opposition was relatively popular among the Kadazandusun voters. A closer look at the results indicate a swing toward the Opposition in the Kadazandusun areas. At the state level, the PBS’s share of the Kadazandusun votes was 32.91 percent while Sabah PKR 33.6 percent (Table 1). Sabah PKR also appeared to obtain more popular votes (35.02 percent) at the parliament level compared to PBS 24.55 percent. The results show that Sabah PKR managed to increase its popularity among the Kadazandusun voters. There are two main reasons to account for this swing. First, some Kadazandusuns were attracted to Sabah PKR’s promise to restore political autonomy in Sabah. Second, some were disappointed with Joseph Pairin Kitingan’s leadership and his failure in addressing issues such as illegal immigrants, regional economic imbalance and so on. They saw Sabah PKR as an “alternative” to PBS.
Sabah PKR, however, failed to maintain its strong presence in Sabah. Internal conflicts and squabblings among its leaders have weakened Sabah PKR. It faced a major crisis after Jeffrey Kitingan withdrew from the party and formed an NGO called UBF (United Borneo Front). Crisis in Sabah PKR intensified after its chief Pajudin Nordin resigned and joined Sabah UMNO. The introduction of a Presidential Council during the interim period before crisis in Sabah PKR is solved will do little to bring Sabah PKR to its former glory. Unless new breed of leaders with fresh and progressive ideas introduced, Sabah PKR will not be able to give real challenge to Musa and Sabah BN. With the continuing and unsettled problems in Sabah PKR, Musa has moved a step further in consolidating his power by ensuring that support for Sabah BN is solidified. With the 13th general election looms, the prospect of Sabah BN to retaining power is bright. Compared to his counterpart in Sarawak who is battling to stay in power, Musa will continue to lead Sabah as long as he is able to unite the Sabah BN parties and to maintain good relations with the Federal Government. It is worth noting that when presenting the 2011 State Budget, Musa announced an increase in the special allocation given to state constituency of RM1 million from RM600,000 previously. Musa also announced an increase in allocation to help the needy in each consituency to RM100,000. With the popularity of the “politics of development” among the rural people, Musa is sure having their support intact.
Key Economic Outlook
Sabah has registered a positive trade balance between 2006 and 2009 (Figure 1). This may be due to high demand for palm oil and crude petroleum worldwide. From January to June 2010, palm oil and crude petroleum accounted for 33 percent and 38 percent of Sabah’s commodities export (Figure 2). Sabah’s economy is set to be robust if the demand for these two commodities remain high. Sabah’s economy is also expected to register a healthy growth next year with the arrival of 2.5 million tourists that could earn the state more than RM5 billion in revenue. With the slogan “High Yiled, Longer Stay, Less Is More, tourism industry is set to play an important role in Sabah’s economic development.
Sabah has seen its GDP increasing consistently from 2002 to 2006 (Figure 3). In 2007, Sabah GDP’s was RM27 billion and increased by about 7 percent to RM29 billion in 2008. Along with the increase in GDP is an increase in Sabah’s per capita income. In 2007, per capita income in Sabah was RM12,583 and increased to RM17,239 in 2008 (Figure 4). While Musa and the Sabah BN have reason to smile for Sabah’s healthy economic growth, more have to be done to address a number of socio-economic concerns. The incidence of overty remains high in Sabah at 23 percent compared to national average of 6 percent. The World Bank’s calculation for poverty in Sabah is even higher at more than 23 percent (Figure 5). Sabah has also registered high incidence of hardcore poverty at 7 percent compared to national average of 1.2 percent. Unemployment rate in Sabah is also high at 6.1 percent in the first quarter of 2009 compared to national average of 4.0 percent. To address the problem of poverty, Sabah has allocated RM162 million to initiate poverty eradication excercises. On top of this allocation is the Federal Government’s assistance of RM40 million under the 1 Azam Programme.
Sabah is also expected to benefit from the ETP (Economic Transformation Plan) through the 71 high-income projects earmarked for the state. 25 of such projects will be developed in rural areas while the rest in urban areas. The projects are not only expected to create jobs for the local people but to increase the state’s GDP and income level. The main challenge for the Sabah BN, however, is to generate economic growth through domestic-initiated investments which could add value to Sabah’s economic strengths. The promises made to develop the SDC (Sabah Development Corridor) must be fulfilled through sound and effective economic policies. The onus is on Musa and Sabah BN to prove that the SDC is not more than a political gimmick but a practical economic plan to develop Sabah.
Conclusion
With the present political atmosphere, it is expected that Sabah BN will continue to lead Sabah and that Musa will continue to helm the government. The Opposition appears to be unable to pose a real challenge due to internal conflicts. Even though Sabah’s economy has registered a healthy growth, there are concerns about the incidence of poverty and unemployment that the government must address.
Saturday, 23 October 2010
An Early Analysis of the Batu Sapi By Election: The Winner and Loser
What will be the main issues in the by-election?
SAPP will be campaigning along state-related issues such as the 20-point and autonomy for Sabah. PKR will be campaigning along the same issues and will entice the voters by claiming that it is a national party whose track record has been proven after the 2008 election. PBS will focus on its performance in Batu Sapi under the late Chong and that it is a popular local-based party to represent Sabahans at the federal level. PBS will also harp on the slogan 1Malaysia by the Najib Administration and will remind the voters that BN is their only hope.
Who are the candidates and what are their chances?
It has been revealed that SAPP President Yong Teck Lee will stand on SAPP ticket while PKR will be represented by a prominent lawyer, Ansari Abdullah. The indication is strong that PBS will be fielding Chong’s wife, Linda. If the battle is between SAPP and PBS, SAPP would stand a good chance of winning. SAPP is a local-based party that has gained prominence for championing Sabah issues. Regional sentiments are still very strong in Sabah and SAPP knows how to play with them very well. For many Sabahans, SAPP is the new “champion” of Sabah, a role that used to be played by PBS. To some Sabahans, PBS has lost its “claws” and its president Pairin is seen as Chief Minister Musa’s blue-eyed boy. Ansari is an outsider to the Batu Sapi people. So, his chances are quite slim. Further, many people have become disenchanted with PKR for its failure in playing its role as a credible opposition party in Sabah. With Jeffrey now distancing himself from PKR, it would be difficult for the party to win. The series of in-fightings and struggle for power will reduce PKR’s chances of gaining the upper hand. If Linda is chosen, it is going to be difficult for SAPP and PKR to deny BN any chance to win. Being the wife of Chong, the people’s sympathy will play a big role come polling day.
How will the voters vote?
Batu Sapi has a majority of Chinese voters. The Chinese votes will split between SAPP and PBS. PKR will receive only a small number of Chinese votes. The Muslim Bumiputera votes will go to PBS. Their votes will be a sign of endorsement to Sabah UMNO. The non-Muslim votes will also be split between SAPP and PBS. Again, PKR will be at the receiving end. So, it will be a tough fight between SAPP and PBS.
Which party will eventually win in the by-election?
PBS will win with a reduced majority. SAPP will come second followed by PKR. There are many factors that will influence the voters’ decisions. First, the voters will vote for PBS because of their sympathy to Linda. So, even if PBS wins, it will not show anything about the voters’ endorsement to PBS and BN. Second, the large number of voters who will vote for SAPP will indicate a strong endorsement to the party’s role in championing Sabah issues. Thirdly, with only a minimal number of votes going to PKR, the party has a lot more to do to convince Sabahans that it is a party to serve their interests in Sabah.
SAPP will be campaigning along state-related issues such as the 20-point and autonomy for Sabah. PKR will be campaigning along the same issues and will entice the voters by claiming that it is a national party whose track record has been proven after the 2008 election. PBS will focus on its performance in Batu Sapi under the late Chong and that it is a popular local-based party to represent Sabahans at the federal level. PBS will also harp on the slogan 1Malaysia by the Najib Administration and will remind the voters that BN is their only hope.
Who are the candidates and what are their chances?
It has been revealed that SAPP President Yong Teck Lee will stand on SAPP ticket while PKR will be represented by a prominent lawyer, Ansari Abdullah. The indication is strong that PBS will be fielding Chong’s wife, Linda. If the battle is between SAPP and PBS, SAPP would stand a good chance of winning. SAPP is a local-based party that has gained prominence for championing Sabah issues. Regional sentiments are still very strong in Sabah and SAPP knows how to play with them very well. For many Sabahans, SAPP is the new “champion” of Sabah, a role that used to be played by PBS. To some Sabahans, PBS has lost its “claws” and its president Pairin is seen as Chief Minister Musa’s blue-eyed boy. Ansari is an outsider to the Batu Sapi people. So, his chances are quite slim. Further, many people have become disenchanted with PKR for its failure in playing its role as a credible opposition party in Sabah. With Jeffrey now distancing himself from PKR, it would be difficult for the party to win. The series of in-fightings and struggle for power will reduce PKR’s chances of gaining the upper hand. If Linda is chosen, it is going to be difficult for SAPP and PKR to deny BN any chance to win. Being the wife of Chong, the people’s sympathy will play a big role come polling day.
How will the voters vote?
Batu Sapi has a majority of Chinese voters. The Chinese votes will split between SAPP and PBS. PKR will receive only a small number of Chinese votes. The Muslim Bumiputera votes will go to PBS. Their votes will be a sign of endorsement to Sabah UMNO. The non-Muslim votes will also be split between SAPP and PBS. Again, PKR will be at the receiving end. So, it will be a tough fight between SAPP and PBS.
Which party will eventually win in the by-election?
PBS will win with a reduced majority. SAPP will come second followed by PKR. There are many factors that will influence the voters’ decisions. First, the voters will vote for PBS because of their sympathy to Linda. So, even if PBS wins, it will not show anything about the voters’ endorsement to PBS and BN. Second, the large number of voters who will vote for SAPP will indicate a strong endorsement to the party’s role in championing Sabah issues. Thirdly, with only a minimal number of votes going to PKR, the party has a lot more to do to convince Sabahans that it is a party to serve their interests in Sabah.
Wednesday, 15 September 2010
Hari Malaysia dan Isu Sabah
Setelah sekian lama menunggu, akhirnya Kerajaan Malaysia di bawah pimpinan Najib Razak mengistiharkan 16 September sebagai cuti umum. 16 September juga akan diraikan bersama dengan rakyat Sabah esok. Bagi rakyat Sabah, tarikh ini amat signifikan kerana ia mengingatkan mereka tentang pembentukkan Malaysia pada 16 September 1963. Adakah pengiktirafan ini akan berjaya "melembutkan" hati rakyat Sabah dan seterusnya dapat mempertahankan kedudukan BN? Mungkin ya dan mungkin tidak.
Namun, bagi pendapat saya, BN perlu bekerja lebih keras dan tidak cukup dengan hanya memberi pengiktirafan kepada 16 September sahaja. Dalam tulisan ini, saya, antara lainnya, ingin mengulas kenyataan Ketua Menteri Musa Aman dua bulan lepas yang mana beliau mengatakan rakyat Sabah akan menolak pihak pembangkang yang "berangan-angan" untuk merampas Sabah daripada BN. Mengikut perkembangan semasa, ini memang benar lebih-lebih lagi dengan tumpuan yang diberikan oleh Kerajaan Persekutuan kepada Sabah dan kelemahan pihak pembangkang mengimbangi populariti BN. Namun, Musa dan BN perlu berhati-hati kerana rakyat Sabah mampu membuat kejutan. Masih ingat tahun 1985 apabila Kerajaan Negeri pimpinan Harris Salleh daripada BERJAYA tumbang? Ramai yang tidak menyangka pemimpin kuat dan berpandangan jauh seperti Harris boleh ditundukkan oleh parti "underdog" PBS. Para pengundi hanya menunggu saat yang sesuai untuk mengekspresikan hak demokratik mereka. Aspirasi Musa dan BN untuk melihat Sabah kekal di bawah kuasa BN boleh tercapai jika perkara-perkara berikut ditangani segera.
1. Bertindak menyelesaikan masalah pendatang tanpa izin (PTI) di Sabah. Musa dan BN hanya perlu menunjukkan kesanggupan politik ("political will") untuk menyelesaikan masalah ini. PBS sudah meletakkan "dateline" supaya isu ini dapat diselesaikan. Namun, Musa dan BN harus bertindak dengan lebih pragmatik. Mereka hanya perlu memilih sama ada:
Namun, bagi pendapat saya, BN perlu bekerja lebih keras dan tidak cukup dengan hanya memberi pengiktirafan kepada 16 September sahaja. Dalam tulisan ini, saya, antara lainnya, ingin mengulas kenyataan Ketua Menteri Musa Aman dua bulan lepas yang mana beliau mengatakan rakyat Sabah akan menolak pihak pembangkang yang "berangan-angan" untuk merampas Sabah daripada BN. Mengikut perkembangan semasa, ini memang benar lebih-lebih lagi dengan tumpuan yang diberikan oleh Kerajaan Persekutuan kepada Sabah dan kelemahan pihak pembangkang mengimbangi populariti BN. Namun, Musa dan BN perlu berhati-hati kerana rakyat Sabah mampu membuat kejutan. Masih ingat tahun 1985 apabila Kerajaan Negeri pimpinan Harris Salleh daripada BERJAYA tumbang? Ramai yang tidak menyangka pemimpin kuat dan berpandangan jauh seperti Harris boleh ditundukkan oleh parti "underdog" PBS. Para pengundi hanya menunggu saat yang sesuai untuk mengekspresikan hak demokratik mereka. Aspirasi Musa dan BN untuk melihat Sabah kekal di bawah kuasa BN boleh tercapai jika perkara-perkara berikut ditangani segera.
1. Bertindak menyelesaikan masalah pendatang tanpa izin (PTI) di Sabah. Musa dan BN hanya perlu menunjukkan kesanggupan politik ("political will") untuk menyelesaikan masalah ini. PBS sudah meletakkan "dateline" supaya isu ini dapat diselesaikan. Namun, Musa dan BN harus bertindak dengan lebih pragmatik. Mereka hanya perlu memilih sama ada:
- mengekalkan PTI dan membenarkan mereka bekerja dalam sektor- sektor kritikal yang memerlukan buruh asing;
- melaksanakan program komprehensif untuk menangani masalah PTI. Ini termasuklah membuat satu pelan tindakan yang mempunyai KPI ("Key Performance Index"). Jika KPI tidak tercapai, maka, Musa dan BN harus berani menerima kegagalan mereka. Agak aneh isu PTI tidak dimasukkan ke dalam NKRAs ("National Key Result Areas") yang diumumkan oleh Menteri di Jabatan Perdana Menteri Idris Jala baru-baru ini. Segelintir pemimpin BN juga diam apabila rakyat Sabah menunjukkan kegusaran mereka; dan,
- menghantar pulang semua PTI
Musa harus bertindak segera bagi mengembalikan keyakinan rakyat Sabah. Isu PTI harus ditangani secara "head-on" dan bukan "hangat-hangat tahi ayam".
2. Menyakinkan Sabah bahawa UMNO bukan datang untuk menjajah atau merampas sumber asli negeri tetapi membantu membangunkan sosio-ekonomi rakyat. Kita membaca baru-baru ini cubaan beberapa pemimpin UMNO untuk mengambilalih Tanjong Kapur, Merotai dan Putatan. Ini adalah sesuatu yang tidak sihat dan bercanggah dengan kenyataan Najib supaya ahli-ahli BN tidak menimbulkan isu peruntukan kerusi pilihanraya. Jika benar Musa dan BN serius, budaya politik UMNO harus diubah iaitu mengambil kira sensitiviti parti BN lain dan semua suku kaum di Sabah.
3. Memastikan ekonomi Sabah tetap mapan dan pembahagian kekayaan negeri dibahagi sama rata untuk kepentingan rakyat. Musa dan BN harus menumpukan kepada pembangunan infrastruktur seperti hospital, sekolah dan kemudahan awam. Musa dan BN harus meletakkan kebajikan rakyat sebagai prioriti. Musa dan BN juga harus memastikan harga barangan tidak dinaikkan sesuka hati oleh para peniaga. Di sebuah restoran di Luyang, semangkuk "Kolo Mee" dijual dengan harga RM7.00 - RM8.00! Begitu juga dengan harga rumah. Kebanyakkan golongan berpendapatan pertengahan tidak mampu membeli rumah terutama sekali yang berdekatan dengan bandar. Ini kerana harga rumah yang terlalu mahal dan dipengaruhi oleh faktor spekulasi. Jika mereka tidak mampu membeli rumah, apalagi golongan yang berpendapatan rendah. Musa dan BN harus melihat kepada kepentingan rakyat secara menyeluruh dan memastikan golongan tamak haloba tidak "mengambil kesempatan dalam kesempitan"
4. Antara aset penting Sabah ialah kekayaan flora dan faunanya. Musa dan BN harus memastikan khazanah penting ini dipelihara bagi kepentingan generasi akan datang. Mereka harus memastikan penerokaan sumber tenaga dilaksanakan secara "sustainable". Musa dan BN harus tegas dengan pendirian Kerajaan Negeri untuk tidak membina penjana kuasa arang batu di Lahad Datu. Jika Kerajaan Negeri serius dengan usaha penerokaan sumber tenaga alternatif, maka perancangan jangkamasa panjang haruslah dibuat dan dibentangkan kepada rakyat.
5. Selain kekayaan flora dan fauna, Sabah juga dikenali dengan masyarakat berbilang kaum. Musa dan BN harus serius dan berusaha mengekalkan keunikan masyarakat berbilang kaum Sabah dan memastikan layanan sama rata untuk semua etnik dan agama. Musa dan pemimpin BN lain haruslah mendahului pelaksanan polisi 1Malaysia kerana Sabah dianggap oleh Najib sebagai contoh atau model bagi perpaduan kaum di Malaysia. Polisi 1Malaysia ini tidak cukup hanya dilaung-laungkan dalam bentuk retorik kerana ia harus diterjemahkan dalam bentuk tindakan. Mampukah Musa dan BN turun padang dan membuktikan 1Malaysia berjaya? Jika mampu, rakyat akan sokong termasuklah saya.
6. Musa dan BN harus menangani isu tanah. Ramai pemohon tanah menunggu lama untuk melihat permohonan mereka diluluskan. Musa dan BN harus mencari jalan untuk mengatasi masalah ini. Bagi saya, masalah ini boleh diselesaikan jika puncanya dikenalpasti dan ada keseriusan pada pihak tertentu untuk menyelesaikannya. Rakyat Sabah juga harus dilindungi supaya golongan tamak haloba tidak merampas tanah kepunyaan mereka.
7. Profesor Undang-Undang dan Sejarah Ranjit Singh membuat segelintir orang marah apabila beliau mengatakan sudah tiba masanya rakyat Sabah mengubah persepsi mereka tentang kedudukan Sabah dalam Malaysia. Beliau mengatakan Sabah adalah salah sebuah negeri dalam Malaysia dan bukan sebuah negara yang berhak mendapat layanan istimewa. Ini kerana pemimpin Sabah "bersetuju" untuk meletakkan Sabah di bawah sebuah persekutuan dan "akur" dengan lunas-lunas perlembagaan semasa Malaysia dibentuk. Secara teknikal, Ranjit memang benar tetapi Laporan IGC (Inter Governmental Committee) dan Perkara 20 telah dipersetujui untuk dijadikan asas bagi penyertaan Sabah ke dalam Persekutuan Malaysia. Maka, apa yang sudah dipersetujui haruslah dihormati. Ini kesempatan bagi Musa dan pemimpin BN Sabah untuk mengingatkan Kerajaan Persekutuan pentingnya Perjanjian Malaysia 1963 dihormati semua pihak. Bagi saya, tidak salah bagi Musa dan BN Sabah untuk merujuk perkara dalam Perjanjian Malaysia yang sudah dilanggar dan meminta Kerajaan Persekutuan menelitinya. Rakyat Sabah secara amnya bersetuju untuk terlibat dalam proses integrasi nasional tetapi ini harus dilaksanakan dalam konteks Perjanjian Malaysia 1963.
Sebenarnya, banyak lagi perkara yang harus ditangai oleh Musa dan BN. Senarai yang saya berikan cumalah sebahagian yang sempat saya tulis. Sempena dengan sambutan Hari Malaysia, Musa dan pemimpin BN Sabah harus menggunakan kesempatan ini untuk menyalurkan isi hati rakyat Sabah mengenai isu-isu negeri yang sudah lama dan masih belum dapat diselesaikan. Sebagai pengundi, saya berhak menyarankan cadangan kepada Musa dan BN (termasuk wakil rakyat saya di Sipitang) supaya bekerja lebih keras demi membangun rakyat dan negeri Sabah. Pemimpin yang baik ialah seorang yang akur dan tunduk kepada kemahuan rakyat, dan bersedia untuk menampilkan sikap kebertanggungjawaban ("accountability"). Pemimpin-pemimpin kita harus belajar daripada pemimpin-pemimpin negara Britain dan Amerika Syarikat. Mereka dibayar mahal dan sanggup "dibuang" jika pengundi merasakan mereka tidak berperanan seperti yang diharapkan.
Jika Musa dan BN bersedia untuk mendengar luahan hati rakyat dan bekerja dengan lebih keras, maka, mereka tidak perlu risau dengan aktiviti pihak pembangkang. Pihak pembangkang pula haruslah mengimbangi lawan mereka dengan memperkenalkan polisi-polisi alternatif dan bukan menyerang peribadi lawan.
Dan yang paling penting, marilah kita rakyat Malaysia menggunakan kesempatan ini untuk memperbaharui komitmen kita mempertahankan negara Malaysia yang berbilang kaum, berbilang agama, stabil dan aman.
Selamat Menyambut Hari Malaysia!!!
Sunday, 25 April 2010
Hulu Selangor By-Election: A Vote for Development (Money)
The results of the Hulu Selangor by-election do not come as a surprise to me. Of course, I predicted that PKR would win based on ground sentiments and rift over the choice of BN's candidate. However, I was underestimating BN's capability in manipulating the three Ms (money, media and machinery) (nowadays, it seems like BN is campaigning everyday--even during non-election days--through its propaganda apparatuses namely TV1, TV2 and TV3). Of all the three Ms, it was the first "M" (BN called it "development") which became the decisive factor that turned the tide in Hulu Selangor against PKR. The short campaign period of seven days also proved to be disadvantageous to PKR as they relied on sentiments and national issues to win votes. If you want to convince the voters that sentiments plus issues are more important than development (money) then you need to have more than seven days to change the voters' minds, especially among those who are less educated and less exposed to the media.
BN went all out dispensing huge amount of money to the electorate. Zaid claimed that the ruling coalition spent about RM64 million to win Hulu Selangor while Anwar said it was RM100 million. BN did not need more than seven days to attack Zaid's character and to give cash to the voters. The Felda settlers who have waited for 15 years for the relevant parties to solve their problems, had BN come to their rescue. This forces one to think: why was compensation not given to them when BN was in power? Why only now? Did BN was so desperate to win Hulu Selangor that it did not mind "throwing" money there to prove its "commitment" to develop the area?
Here, I provide to you the amount of money BN spent to win Hulu Selangor. Note that some of the figures were not in the form of on-the-spot endownments (corruption?). They were part of BN's pledge for Hulu Selangor's long-term development should the voters return it to power.
Zaid was banking on his charisma and experience in the federal cabinet, plus his outspokenness on national issues such as ISA (International Security Act), human rights and freedom of speech. The problem is, if you take these issues to a semi-urban area like Hulu Selangor, you might be seen as an idealistic university professor talking to a bunch of fresh graduates. No, I am not saying that the Hulu Selangor voters are incapable of understanding national issues. I am simply being realistic about local politics. A local guy who understands local issue and "local language" might have been more appropriate to stand in order to wrest Hulu Selangor from BN. Hulu Selangor was once a PKR seat but do not forget it had been a BN stronghold before it fell to PKR in 2008. And the vote margin obtained by the PKR candidate in 2008 was less than 200 votes. So, by allowing an "outsider" to take on BN in Hulu Selangor, PKR's chances of winning might have been slightly reduced. Also, fielding a Malay-Muslim with a less liberal outlook might have been more suitable as the battle ground clearly is in the Malay heartlands of Hulu Selangor.
BN said that the party's victory in Hulu Selangor is a mandate to Najib's administration and an endorsement of his 1Malaysia concept, NEM (New Economic Model) and other policies. However, take a closer look: Zaid also obtained a substantial number of votes in the by election. If we translate his popular votes into percentage it would be 48.21 percent compared to BN's 51.78 percent. This is just 3.57 percent difference. BN's supporters can claim the Hulu Selangor victory a referendum or sorts for Najib's leadership but it is one which was attained not on a level playing field. If BN did not use money to entice the voters, if it let the media to report without fear and favour, if it allowed a healthy debate between Kamal and Zaid, if the voters were allowed to vote without a third party's interference, if it let the Election Commission (EC) to act independently, then, yes, BN's victory in Hulu Selangor, is indeed an endorsement of Najib's leadership. Having said all of these, I would say that BN's victory in Hulu Selangor is not Najib's best performance yet. So, he and BN cannot be complacent.
My take on the by-election is that the Hulu Selangor voters voted for development (money) than change. Change might be something that can be easily swallowed in the US (in the case of Obama's presidential victory) but in Malaysia it is not the case. If the Opposition is banking on the word "change" to stay relevant, then it has to educate Malaysians what it entails and how it matters to them. Otherwise, they will view development (read, again, money) as far more important that change. Also, the Opposition cannot solely depend on the public persona of its key leaders to initiate sweeping reform in the country. It has to strengthen its grassroots party machineries and search for young, aggressive and dynamic blood to steer the party. At the rate the Opposition is going, I do not think it is capable of providing any strong challenge to BN let alone take over the government in the upcoming general elections. Not yet. I see the Opposition's performance in Sabah and it is quite appalling.
BN went all out dispensing huge amount of money to the electorate. Zaid claimed that the ruling coalition spent about RM64 million to win Hulu Selangor while Anwar said it was RM100 million. BN did not need more than seven days to attack Zaid's character and to give cash to the voters. The Felda settlers who have waited for 15 years for the relevant parties to solve their problems, had BN come to their rescue. This forces one to think: why was compensation not given to them when BN was in power? Why only now? Did BN was so desperate to win Hulu Selangor that it did not mind "throwing" money there to prove its "commitment" to develop the area?
Here, I provide to you the amount of money BN spent to win Hulu Selangor. Note that some of the figures were not in the form of on-the-spot endownments (corruption?). They were part of BN's pledge for Hulu Selangor's long-term development should the voters return it to power.
- During his visit to an ailing kidney patient, Najib "announced that the Federal Government would allocate RM15,000 a month or RM180,000 annually as welfare assistance for 53 families". At the same time, Najib also "approved RM30,000 for Kelab Muhibbah Kampung Baru, Kuala Kubu Baru to construct a new building" (The Star, 25 April 2010)
- The Chinese in Rasa had reason to be happy when Najib allocated RM3 million to build a new school for them (The Star, 25 April 2010)
- The Indians were also not spared from receiving a "goodie" from the Prime Minister. Najib gave a letter of undertaking to the Seri Maha Mariamman Temple in Kalumpang so that they could build a new temple on a piece of land. Of course, they would only get what is promised to them if they voted for BN (The Star, 25 April 2010)
- In an attempt to win the votes of the former Felda settlers in Sungai Buaya, Najib plegded to pay them RM18.15 million for having had to wait the payment for the sale of their lands. Some of them received RM50 000 (RM49 000 as a bank draft and RM1000 in cash) (New Straits Times, 24 April, 2010). But that was not it. Najib also pledged to pay the remaining compensation money "at a rate of RM160 000 per acre when the land is developed". Again, this would come with a price: the voters must vote for BN in order the "facilitate" the remaining payment once the land is developed. The former settlers were also given an insurance policy worth RM10 000 (The Star, 25 April 2010)
- After Sungai Buaya, Najib approved another allocation of RM90 000 to a local Chinese association to upgrade a road leading to a cemetary (New Straits Times, 24 April, 2010)
Zaid was banking on his charisma and experience in the federal cabinet, plus his outspokenness on national issues such as ISA (International Security Act), human rights and freedom of speech. The problem is, if you take these issues to a semi-urban area like Hulu Selangor, you might be seen as an idealistic university professor talking to a bunch of fresh graduates. No, I am not saying that the Hulu Selangor voters are incapable of understanding national issues. I am simply being realistic about local politics. A local guy who understands local issue and "local language" might have been more appropriate to stand in order to wrest Hulu Selangor from BN. Hulu Selangor was once a PKR seat but do not forget it had been a BN stronghold before it fell to PKR in 2008. And the vote margin obtained by the PKR candidate in 2008 was less than 200 votes. So, by allowing an "outsider" to take on BN in Hulu Selangor, PKR's chances of winning might have been slightly reduced. Also, fielding a Malay-Muslim with a less liberal outlook might have been more suitable as the battle ground clearly is in the Malay heartlands of Hulu Selangor.
BN said that the party's victory in Hulu Selangor is a mandate to Najib's administration and an endorsement of his 1Malaysia concept, NEM (New Economic Model) and other policies. However, take a closer look: Zaid also obtained a substantial number of votes in the by election. If we translate his popular votes into percentage it would be 48.21 percent compared to BN's 51.78 percent. This is just 3.57 percent difference. BN's supporters can claim the Hulu Selangor victory a referendum or sorts for Najib's leadership but it is one which was attained not on a level playing field. If BN did not use money to entice the voters, if it let the media to report without fear and favour, if it allowed a healthy debate between Kamal and Zaid, if the voters were allowed to vote without a third party's interference, if it let the Election Commission (EC) to act independently, then, yes, BN's victory in Hulu Selangor, is indeed an endorsement of Najib's leadership. Having said all of these, I would say that BN's victory in Hulu Selangor is not Najib's best performance yet. So, he and BN cannot be complacent.
My take on the by-election is that the Hulu Selangor voters voted for development (money) than change. Change might be something that can be easily swallowed in the US (in the case of Obama's presidential victory) but in Malaysia it is not the case. If the Opposition is banking on the word "change" to stay relevant, then it has to educate Malaysians what it entails and how it matters to them. Otherwise, they will view development (read, again, money) as far more important that change. Also, the Opposition cannot solely depend on the public persona of its key leaders to initiate sweeping reform in the country. It has to strengthen its grassroots party machineries and search for young, aggressive and dynamic blood to steer the party. At the rate the Opposition is going, I do not think it is capable of providing any strong challenge to BN let alone take over the government in the upcoming general elections. Not yet. I see the Opposition's performance in Sabah and it is quite appalling.
Wednesday, 21 April 2010
I am Malaysian and proud of it!!!
The Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin said that he is Malay first then Malaysian. With all due respect, that is his choice and it is none of our business to dispute that. I asked my students if they are Malaysian first then followed by their ethnic group: I had more than half responding in the affirmative. When it was my turn to respond, I said that I am Malaysian and followed by my ethnic group. Then, I went on to explain why I considered myself as a proud Malaysian.
My father is a Filipino who migrated to Malaysia in 1959, that was two years after Malaysia's independence. To be more specific, he comes from the Illocano ethnic tribe who lives on the Ilo-Ilo Islands in Central Luzon. The Illocanos are known for their warmth and generosity. That is why my father's small business in Sipitang is not profitable as he is too generous with tenants who flaunt their unpaid house rentals. For my father, the proclamation of Malaysia as a new nation in 1963 was unforgettable as he was one of those hopeful immigrants who witnessed the historic event. All in all, my father has been in Malaysia for more than 50 good years. He tried to apply for a Malaysian citizenship more than three times but to no avail. When I wrote to the Ministry of Home Affairs asking why his application had been turned down, it replied that it was the prerogative of the Minister to approve or disapprove my father's application. Yes, no reasons given! Had my father changed his religion and name, he would have become a Malaysian citizen long time ago. However, he was not the type of person who was willing to compromise his principle. Despite living in the evangelical tradition of ours, my father has remained steadfast to his Roman Catholic faith. My father does not have a formal education and has been a tractor driver all his life. He speaks good Bahasa Malaysia and has pledged loyalty to the country. All he wants in his life is to become a Malaysian citizen (p/s: my father is a strong PBS and Pairin supporter, too. And he told me that he once worked with Chief Minister Musa Aman's timber company)
My mother is a Lundayeh from Sipitang. The Lundayeh is believed to have originated from Pa' Kemaluh in Kalimantan Indonesia. Her race is loosely categorised as Dayak by the authority there. While my grandfather is a Lundayeh, my grandmother is a Lengilu. Some say the Lengilu is one of the fiercest ethnic tribes in Kalimantan those days. The Lengilus regarded headhunting as a way of life and symbolised pride and honour. My wife is a Kenyah-Kelabit from Long Lellang in Miri, Sarawak. The only way to get there is through logging roads and by small aircraft. In Sarawak, her ethnic tribe is loosely described as "Orang Ulu" (up-river people). My wife speaks fluently in three different languages: Kenyah, Kelabit and Iban. To my surprise, when I first met her, she spoke in Iban with her father and mother! When I went to the Registration Department to register my newborn, I put Kenyah as her race, following her mum's. I had no choice, I could not leave the race and religion columns blank as this would pose trouble to my child later. Do not forget, this is Malaysia.
Did you all get the whole picture? Due to this complex ethnic diversity, I consider myself unique and this in all make me a proud Malaysian. I do not care what those people want to call me. I remember when I was a little kid, I used to be called "anak pelipin" (son to a Filipino). Those days (and I believe even today), when you were a Filipino, the locals would see you negatively because they would associate you with all sorts of social problems like murder, robbery and what not. Coincidently, yes, Filipinos at one time topped the list in police statistics. However, recent data has shown that more and more locals are involved in criminal acts. Of course, there are locals who try to dispute this but I have nothing to say to them. Look at the facts and be receptive to them. I scolded my students who used the word "pilak" to call Filipinos from the southern Philippines. The word carries a very negative connotation that implies social backwardness and ineptitude. I told my students to be fair to immigrants who come to the country to earn money and to live peacefully. Of course, those who come illegally must be sent back and those who have broken the country's laws must not be allowed to return until they "repent".
So, you see, our society has been programmed to look at things according to the racial lenses. Racial stereotype is still very strong in Malaysia. We should learn from the Americans who are colour-blind and who regard themselves as Americans first and followed by their ethnic origin. Unless we change our mindset, we can say goodbye to "1Malaysia". I have nothing but scorn for Malaysians who are chauvinistic and narrowed-minded about their race. So, you can call me a Lundayeh, a Filipino, "anak pelipin", a "pilak", a Kelabit, a Kenyah, an Iban, and what not. I just do not care because I am Malaysian and proud of it!
My father is a Filipino who migrated to Malaysia in 1959, that was two years after Malaysia's independence. To be more specific, he comes from the Illocano ethnic tribe who lives on the Ilo-Ilo Islands in Central Luzon. The Illocanos are known for their warmth and generosity. That is why my father's small business in Sipitang is not profitable as he is too generous with tenants who flaunt their unpaid house rentals. For my father, the proclamation of Malaysia as a new nation in 1963 was unforgettable as he was one of those hopeful immigrants who witnessed the historic event. All in all, my father has been in Malaysia for more than 50 good years. He tried to apply for a Malaysian citizenship more than three times but to no avail. When I wrote to the Ministry of Home Affairs asking why his application had been turned down, it replied that it was the prerogative of the Minister to approve or disapprove my father's application. Yes, no reasons given! Had my father changed his religion and name, he would have become a Malaysian citizen long time ago. However, he was not the type of person who was willing to compromise his principle. Despite living in the evangelical tradition of ours, my father has remained steadfast to his Roman Catholic faith. My father does not have a formal education and has been a tractor driver all his life. He speaks good Bahasa Malaysia and has pledged loyalty to the country. All he wants in his life is to become a Malaysian citizen (p/s: my father is a strong PBS and Pairin supporter, too. And he told me that he once worked with Chief Minister Musa Aman's timber company)
My mother is a Lundayeh from Sipitang. The Lundayeh is believed to have originated from Pa' Kemaluh in Kalimantan Indonesia. Her race is loosely categorised as Dayak by the authority there. While my grandfather is a Lundayeh, my grandmother is a Lengilu. Some say the Lengilu is one of the fiercest ethnic tribes in Kalimantan those days. The Lengilus regarded headhunting as a way of life and symbolised pride and honour. My wife is a Kenyah-Kelabit from Long Lellang in Miri, Sarawak. The only way to get there is through logging roads and by small aircraft. In Sarawak, her ethnic tribe is loosely described as "Orang Ulu" (up-river people). My wife speaks fluently in three different languages: Kenyah, Kelabit and Iban. To my surprise, when I first met her, she spoke in Iban with her father and mother! When I went to the Registration Department to register my newborn, I put Kenyah as her race, following her mum's. I had no choice, I could not leave the race and religion columns blank as this would pose trouble to my child later. Do not forget, this is Malaysia.
Did you all get the whole picture? Due to this complex ethnic diversity, I consider myself unique and this in all make me a proud Malaysian. I do not care what those people want to call me. I remember when I was a little kid, I used to be called "anak pelipin" (son to a Filipino). Those days (and I believe even today), when you were a Filipino, the locals would see you negatively because they would associate you with all sorts of social problems like murder, robbery and what not. Coincidently, yes, Filipinos at one time topped the list in police statistics. However, recent data has shown that more and more locals are involved in criminal acts. Of course, there are locals who try to dispute this but I have nothing to say to them. Look at the facts and be receptive to them. I scolded my students who used the word "pilak" to call Filipinos from the southern Philippines. The word carries a very negative connotation that implies social backwardness and ineptitude. I told my students to be fair to immigrants who come to the country to earn money and to live peacefully. Of course, those who come illegally must be sent back and those who have broken the country's laws must not be allowed to return until they "repent".
So, you see, our society has been programmed to look at things according to the racial lenses. Racial stereotype is still very strong in Malaysia. We should learn from the Americans who are colour-blind and who regard themselves as Americans first and followed by their ethnic origin. Unless we change our mindset, we can say goodbye to "1Malaysia". I have nothing but scorn for Malaysians who are chauvinistic and narrowed-minded about their race. So, you can call me a Lundayeh, a Filipino, "anak pelipin", a "pilak", a Kelabit, a Kenyah, an Iban, and what not. I just do not care because I am Malaysian and proud of it!
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