An Early Analysis of the Batu Sapi By Election: The Winner and Loser

What will be the main issues in the by-election?

SAPP will be campaigning along state-related issues such as the 20-point and autonomy for Sabah. PKR will be campaigning along the same issues and will entice the voters by claiming that it is a national party whose track record has been proven after the 2008 election. PBS will focus on its performance in Batu Sapi under the late Chong and that it is a popular local-based party to represent Sabahans at the federal level. PBS will also harp on the slogan 1Malaysia by the Najib Administration and will remind the voters that BN is their only hope.

Who are the candidates and what are their chances?

It has been revealed that SAPP President Yong Teck Lee will stand on SAPP ticket while PKR will be represented by a prominent lawyer, Ansari Abdullah. The indication is strong that PBS will be fielding Chong’s wife, Linda. If the battle is between SAPP and PBS, SAPP would stand a good chance of winning. SAPP is a local-based party that has gained prominence for championing Sabah issues. Regional sentiments are still very strong in Sabah and SAPP knows how to play with them very well. For many Sabahans, SAPP is the new “champion” of Sabah, a role that used to be played by PBS. To some Sabahans, PBS has lost its “claws” and its president Pairin is seen as Chief Minister Musa’s blue-eyed boy. Ansari is an outsider to the Batu Sapi people. So, his chances are quite slim. Further, many people have become disenchanted with PKR for its failure in playing its role as a credible opposition party in Sabah. With Jeffrey now distancing himself from PKR, it would be difficult for the party to win. The series of in-fightings and struggle for power will reduce PKR’s chances of gaining the upper hand. If Linda is chosen, it is going to be difficult for SAPP and PKR to deny BN any chance to win. Being the wife of Chong, the people’s sympathy will play a big role come polling day.

How will the voters vote?


Batu Sapi has a majority of Chinese voters. The Chinese votes will split between SAPP and PBS. PKR will receive only a small number of Chinese votes. The Muslim Bumiputera votes will go to PBS. Their votes will be a sign of endorsement to Sabah UMNO. The non-Muslim votes will also be split between SAPP and PBS. Again, PKR will be at the receiving end. So, it will be a tough fight between SAPP and PBS.

Which party will eventually win in the by-election?


PBS will win with a reduced majority. SAPP will come second followed by PKR. There are many factors that will influence the voters’ decisions. First, the voters will vote for PBS because of their sympathy to Linda. So, even if PBS wins, it will not show anything about the voters’ endorsement to PBS and BN. Second, the large number of voters who will vote for SAPP will indicate a strong endorsement to the party’s role in championing Sabah issues. Thirdly, with only a minimal number of votes going to PKR, the party has a lot more to do to convince Sabahans that it is a party to serve their interests in Sabah.