Govern Well and Prove the Critics Wrong

Arnold Puyok

Bersatu’s decision to set up a branch in Sabah has left some Warisan supporters and local-based parties wondering whether the state will be witnessing another episode of a Semenanjung-based party coming to divide and rule the state. Some people have already cautioned Warisan to buckle up lest it will be challenged by Bersatu.   

Should Warisan be concerned at all? What can it do to remain on a strong footing?

The Sarawak PH has already announced that it has accepted Bersatu to be part of the state PH coalition. The Sabah PH is expected to follow suit. And this is set to reconfigure the existing coalition. So, the next few months will be interesting to watch.  While it's important for Warisan to keep its political support intact, it’s even more important for the party to ensure that it has the vision and a plan to develop Sabah. If Warisan can convince the people that it has what it takes to govern effectively, it should not worry about Bersatu because ultimately, it’s the electorates who have the power to decide the best party to rule Sabah.   

Chief Minister and Warisan founder Shafie Apdal’s magnanimous response to Bersatu shows that he understands how the politics of federal-state relations work. It also indicates that he cannot afford to repeat his predecessors’ confrontational approach in dealing with the federal government particularly under Tun Mahathir.

So, there’s no turning back to Warisan. It has to accept the fact that Sabah politics is not the same as before. Sabah is no longer insulated by parochial politics and regional sentiments. It has become a more open society, thanks to the migration of people from Peninsular to Sabah and rampant inter-marriages.

As I have written in my previous article, Bersatu coming to Sabah is to fill the void left by UMNO. The Bersatu supporters in Sabah know that they can obtain the support of the Muslim Bumiputera people and to emerge as an alternative player to Warisan. Their strategy is to be as close as possible to the source of power in KL. But, as for now, Warisan has the advantage as it has five ministers at the federal level and it is the incumbent government.

However, the perception on the ground is that Warisan has so far failed to demonstrate its ability to govern well.

So, what can Warisan do?

First, GE14 was a close call and was not a victorious win for Warisan. Warisan came to power not based on the people’s overwhelming mandate. It came to power through an alliance with PH and UPKO. Thus, with such a “paltry” win, Warisan must do more in order to gain the people’s support. At the moment, the people are waiting – they want to see a vision, a direction and a short-term and long-term economic blueprint for Sabah’s development. They want the government to talk more about new policies and new ideas to propel Sabah to greater heights.

Second, Warisan must strengthen itself internally by sharpening its policy focus and outlook. It has to reinforce its machinery at the grassroots level by roping in individuals with qualifications and experience in administration.

Warisan should not worry about Bersatu going into the Muslim-Bumiputera areas to break its dominance because it can capitalise on its multiracial outlook to get the support of Sabahans from various ethnic backgrounds. But, if Warisan says that it is multiracial, it has to prove that Sabah's ethnic groups are represented well in the administration at the local and state levels.

Third, Warisan must take heed of what the PH-led government has done at the federal level. It is not a "perfect" government but at least under the leadership of Tun Mahathir Mohamad, the government is trying its best to fix the problems facing the country through the establishment of the Council of Eminent Persons and recently the Economic Council. There were also some very promising initiatives announced by the government when Tun Mahathir presented the 11^th Malaysian Plan Midterm Review.

Overall, the people are still waiting for the Warisan-led government’s “grand vision” for Sabah:  where will this government take Sabah to in the next five, ten or 20 years?

If Warisan can prove that it can deliver the public goods effectively, that it has the right people to execute the right policies for Sabah, and that it has the grand vision to transform Sabah into a progressive and developed state, it should not worry about Bersatu and the threats posed by its opponents.

Is Bersatu’s entry into Sabah inevitable?

Arnold Puyok

Prime Minister and Bersatu Chairman Tun Mahathir Mohamad seems to give a signal to Warisan that Bersatu’s plan to spread its wing to Sabah is Bersatu’s prerogative and not Warisan’s.

So, is Bersatu’s entry into Sabah inevitable? Can Warisan convince Bersatu to stay away from Sabah?

Let’s address the first question and put it in the wider context of national politics. Sabah is heading for a change and this is evident since 2008. National-based parties have slowly gained popularity in Sabah. A growing number of Sabahans think that national-based parties are capable of championing state interests as well. They believe that Sabah issues can be brought straight to the attention of the federal lawmakers in parliament.

And if the results of the last three general elections (including GE14) are anything to go by, they show that the national-based parties are more popular than the local-based parties. In GE14, local-based parties like PHRS, PPRS, PKS and PCS contested but lost.

The so-called Gabungan Sabah only garnered five per cent of the popular votes in the Malay-Muslim Bumiputera areas, non-Malay Muslim Bumiputera (17 per cent), Chinese (four per cent) and mixed (six per cent) (Table 1).

STAR Sabah performed slightly better, winning one parliamentary seat in Keningau and one state seat in Bingkor. But like the rest, it was defeated in other areas.

The reasons for the dismal performance of the local-based parties will be the subject of another discussion. But generally, Sabahans were looking for the alternative parties and leaders to represent them. And the claim by the local-based parties that only they can best represent the interests of Sabahans does not hold water anymore. STAR Sabah’s marginal win in Keningau and Bingkor was attributed to a multi-cornered contest, involving strong candidates from Warisan, BN and PH.     

PKR and DAP managed to improve their electoral performance this time, winning eight and six seats respectively at the state and parliamentary levels.

So, given the electoral success of PKR and DAP, there are no reasons why Bersatu would not want to join the fray and to compete particularly in the Malay-Muslim Bumiputera constituencies.

Observers have argued that the direct involvement of national-based parties in Sabah was precipitated with UMNO’s entry in 1991. This is widely regarded as a form of federal intervention in local politics. The presence of UMNO, MCA, PKR and DAP has broken the regional barrier that has insulated Sabah politics for so long. This “nationalisation of local politics” is set to change the course of Sabah politics in years to come.

Now, let’s move on to the second question.

In GE14, BN and the PH-Warisan alliance were equally popular in the Malay-Muslim Bumiputera constituencies (Table 1). Warisan might be successful in ending UMNO’s dominance in the Malay-Muslim Bumiputera areas. However, there are many UMNO’s loyal supporters who remain undecided on what to do next. Those who have left UMNO are eyeing for a new platform to make a comeback. This is where Bersatu could play a role -- to fill the void left by UMNO in the Malay-Muslim Bumiputera areas. 

So, based on this assessment, it would be highly likely that Bersatu would spread its wing to Sabah. If this happens, it would put Warisan in a dilemma. Warisan is convinced that it could gain the support of Sabahans based on its "multiracial" outlook, but the Malay-Muslim Bumiputera communities in Sabah may be more attracted to Bersatu that aspires to emerge as the alternative party to serve their interest.

Table 1 Popular Votes Won by Parties According to Constituency Type at State Level

Party/ Coalition	Popular Vote According to Constituency Type (%)
	Malay-Muslim Bumiputera	Non-Malay Muslim Bumiputera (KDM)	Chinese	Mixed
BN	45.95	45.70	19.86	29.57
Pakatan Harapan-Warisan Alliance	46.30	32.55	74.84	63.43
Gabungan Sabah	4.58	17.10	4.11	5.73
Other	3.17	4.65	1.20	1.28

Source: calculated from the Election Commission (EC) and “The Star Online GE14” (https://election.thestar.com.my/).