Impacts of Wilfred and Lajim's withdrawal from BN

*I attended the events organised by Wilfred Bumburing and Lajim Ukin yesterday. Here is my reflection on what will happen next in Sabah politics.

Wilfred and Lajim’s withdrawal did not come as a surprise to many including the Prime Minister. Both had indicated that they wanted to quit earlier but yesterday’s events – one in Tuaran and the other in Beaufort ended months of speculation about Wilfred and Lajim’s political future. The question that many people are asking now is: what would be the impact of the duo’s withdrawal on Sabah politics especially on BN? Before one can generalise the possible impacts of Wilfred and Lajim’s latest political move, one needs to examine their political background.

Wilfred gained prominence during the PBS era, holding the deputy chief minister’s post once and several other ministerial portfolios. He abandoned PBS to join PDS (Parti Demokratik Sabah) that was later changed to UPKO (United Pasok Momogun Kadazandusun Organisation). Wilfred was appointed as the deputy president of UPKO. Wilfred is perhaps best remembered for initiating a Kadazandusun “unity gathering” in Tuaran where several senior Kadazandusun leaders including Joseph Pairin Kitingan, Herman Luping and others pledged to work together for the betterment of the Kadazandusuns. Wilfred is also known for his outspokenness in parliament in voicing out the illegal immigrant problems in Sabah. Apart from that, Wilfred is not as influential as the Kitingan brothers.

Like Wilfred, Lajim also rose to power during the PBS era, he was once a deputy chief minister and a minister in the state cabinet. Lajim is best remembered for triggering the mass defection in PBS that led to the party’s downfall. At last night’s gathering, Lajim admitted that he was coaxed by Anwar Ibrahim to leave PBS and join UMNO for the “sake of the people”. Lajim is a highly popular leader in Beaufort and regarded as “Janang Gayuh” (Paramount Chief) of the Bisaya community. Apart from his amiable character, Lajim is also known for his generosity.

Both, it seems, have impressive political backgrounds. At last night’s gatherings, Lajim and Wilfred decided to withdraw from BN and pledged their support for PR (Pakatan Rakyat). In a separate function, Wilfred declared the formation of the Angkatan Perubahan Sabah (APS) as his new political platform. APS is not a new party but a loose coalition that is “friendly” to PR. Looking closely at APS’ manifesto, it does not contain anything new to the present struggle of the local-based BN and opposition parties. APS pledged to restore the ideal of Malaysia as constructed by the country’s founding fathers. APS also pledged to uphold Sabah’s sovereignty which it claimed as has been eroded by the influx of illegal immigrants into Sabah. Unlike STAR Sabah’s manifesto, APS does not have policy prescriptions to address the Sabah woes. In Beaufort, the same Sabah agenda rhetoric was given by Lajim Ukin. Lajim’s “tukar” slogan is akin to STAR Sabah’s “ini kali lah” tagline. Calling his new political platform Pakatan Perubahan Sabah (PPS), Lajim desired to free Sabah from economically dominant leaders and to bring more developments to his area. Lajim did not mention any specific names when attacking BN but it was obvious that he directed his tirade to Chief Minister Musa Aman.

The gatherings last night attracted a strong crowd. It was estimated that 2000-3000 people attended Wilfred’s gathering in Tuaran. Lajim attracted slightly more around 3000-4000 people.

So, what is in store for Sabah following Wilfred and Lajim’s withdrawal? For sure, it remains to be seen whether one would see spillover effects as a result of their exit. One cannot discount the fact that both are influencial leaders in their own areas. However, whether they can cause ripple effects outside their territories is yet to be seen. Unlike Pairin and Jeffrey, Wilfred is considered as a “rookie” among the Kadazandusuns. He might be able to score some points for his fearlessness in bringing the “Project IC” issue to parliament but there are many other leaders who had started exposing the scandal earlier than him. Wilfred’s “Borneo Agenda” also bears a strong resemblance to Jeffrey’s “Tambunan Declaration” that seeks to restore Sabah’s rights and autonomy. The same thing could also be said of PPS’ manifesto. Many of the points touching on the distribution of oil and gas royalty, the strengthening of the 20 Point Agreement and the restoration of Sabah rights and autonomy are covered by STAR and SAPP earlier.

In the final analysis, the impacts of Wilfred and Lajim’s withdrawal will be minimal, as for now. First, on the policy point of view, both failed to offer meaningful policy prescriptions to address the Sabah issues. This is important as many Sabahans now -- especially the young and educated – support leaders who can provide alternative views in addressing issues of public interests. Second, Wilfred and Lajim do not have influence outside their own territories. For the ordinary Sabahans, Wilfred and Lajim’s withdrawal is nothing more than an attempt by both to regain their lost influence. Third, Wilfred is not a strong and influential Kadazandusun leader. His base support appears to be only in Tamparuli and Tuaran proper. No doubt that Lajim is a strong Bisaya leader but he is not particularly influential in other Muslim areas.

Anwar is banking on Wilfred and Lajim’s influence in the Kadazandusun and Muslim areas. He knows that Jeffrey is still a popular Kadazadusun leader apart from Pairin. But whether or not his plan to gain influence in the Kadazandusun areas through Wilfred will work depend on many factors. Do not forget many of the Kadazandusuns regard Anwar as the mastermind behind PBS’ fall in 1994. They also do not trust him after he refused to wholly support Jeffrey’s Tambunan Declaration. Lajim’s revelation last night that he was coaxed by Anwar to leave PBS and join UMNO might backfire on him. His opponents might use Lajim’s famous 1994 maneuvre to describe him as opportunist leader.