Shafie’s year-end rated: The good, the bad... and the ‘we’ll see’

Julia Chan

KOTA KINABALU, Dec 26 ― To say Sabah Chief Minister Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal did not have an easy ride to the top is an understatement.

The Semporna native galvanised a fractious Opposition, broke down a Barisan Nasional stronghold despite being thrown into lock-up, and toppled his powerful political nemesis in incongruous fashion, so no one can say he did not have to battle to get to the top. 

However, once in the chief minister’s post he has had to tackle some thorny issues dealing with security, conservation, socio economic development and race, all while living up to high expectations.

Here are what lawmakers from both sides of the political divide, as well as political observers and man on the street, think about his performance:

GOOD

1. Logging ban

Out to clean up allegations of timber monopolies and illegal logging, Shafie’s controversial and drastic decision to ban the export of logs and subsequent review all timber concessionaires was lauded by most people.

“Stopping illegal logging is probably the best thing he’s done so far. It’s two-prong, to stop unrelentless logging and also keep the money within the state and provide jobs. If he can industrialise the timber downstream industry, that would change the state economy,” said Kota Kinabalu MP Chan Foong Hin.

2. Abolishing communal titles

The former administration mooted communal titles for the purpose of preventing individuals from selling their land to “outsiders”, an unpopular decision due to the lack of individual rights it granted its holder, and when Shafie decided to abolish it, it was generally well received.

Despite the pros of the communal title, many preferred the uncomplicated nature of a conventional land title.

3. People skills

Shafie has called himself a chief minister for all Sabahans, across all the races, and has made a point of visiting communities in all regions in the State, and even won the hearts of the Christian community by singing a Christmas carol during a Christmas bazaar at the town ground.

“Everywhere Shafie goes, he is well received ― in the city, in the interior he is going down to the ground and appealing to most Sabahans. He definitely is riding high on popularity, people welcome him everywhere, and his soft spokenness and good manners also earn him a lot of supporters both in urban and rural areas,” said Chan.

BAD

1. Coal mining

When Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad first suggested accessing Sabah’s coal reserves, Sabahans were up in arms, offended that Sabah’s precious natural resources be exploited by “federal powers”. Shafie later said that they would do a feasibility study first, but at the same time alluded that the government might need to take a controversial route for the greater good of the people.

“It goes against their so-called pledge to protect the environment. The Maliau Basin has been protected by the previous governments for the last 30 years. It was tempting but its environment implications ― and the global backlash ― stopped them, and for good reason,” said Kiulu assemblyman Datuk Joniston Bangkuai.

“In an era where we are moving into sustainable methods of harnessing power, its archaic to move back to coal. There is argument for clean coal technology but the mining of coal is almost certain to affect the sensitive ecology. It might bring benefits but it might be ‘political suicide’ in my view.”

 2. Datukship titles

The Sabah governor’s birthday this year came four months after the new administration and saw the entire Sabah Cabinet among 65 people plus some MPs getting the title of Datuk, something that did not sit well with many Sabahans, given how inexperienced some of the ministers were.

“He was rewarding his people too fast ― it’s nice that he’s trying to reward their contribution, but it is exactly the Umno culture people were rejecting. I think this was a lost opportunity for the new government to show they were ‘different’ and were not about reward for their people.

“There’s nothing technically wrong with it, but it was thoroughly unnecessary and gives the wrong impression,” said one prominent lawyer in Sabah.

3. The extension of the governor’s term

The most recent controversy to hit Shafie was the lifting of the two-term limit for the governor as head of state.

Assemblymen questioned the timing ― during a special sitting two weeks ahead of the current Head of State Tun Juhar Mahiruddin’s term expiry, and his involvement in the appointing of two chief ministers after the May 9 polls.

Despite protests from several state assemblymen, the amendment was passed in the state assembly last week with 45 in favour of the change, 15 objecting, and five absent from voting.

 “This move leaves a bad impression for the public and does not bode well for Warisan who has promised government reforms,” said political analyst Arnold Puyok.

“Of course they argued that this was in line with MA63 but rather than focusing on the TYT term, there are more pertinent issues to focus on, such as uplifting the English language as official language in Sabah or seeking the mandate from the state assembly to strengthen Sabah’s position in the federation.”

MA63 refers to the Malaysia Agreement 1963 and TYT is the Malay abbreviation for Tuan Yang Terutama, or Your Excellency in English.

INCONCLUSIVE

1. Dual portfolio

After a contentious route to the chief minister office, Shafie appointed himself as state finance minister. Like Dr Mahathir’s decision to also take on the education portfolio, the decision was criticised but unlike the latter, Shafie chose to retain both portfolios, saying that he would not hold the finance portfolio longer than necessary to sort out the state’s economic “mess”.

“It’s unfortunate that he did not take the more honourable route. But to be fair, Shafie’s Parti Warisan Sabah did not make any promise to not hold dual portfolios, like Pakatan Harapan and  Shafie also has an degree in Economics, which makes him the most qualified for the post,” said a state assemblyman in the Warisan-led government who declined to be named.

“If Shafie is really serious about reforming governance in Sabah, he shouldn’t take a dual ministerial role. The perception now is that, just like his predecessor, Shafie wants to have a total control over how financial resources are being distributed. But his decision not to let state GLCs to be run by elected politicians is laudable,” said Arnold Puyok.

2. Stance on Kaiduan dam and Tanjung Aru Eco Development (TAED)

“Shafie’s party leaders have vocally opposed the two controversial projects pre-GE14, saying that the BN government did not consider the people involved, and promised to scrap the project. But the lack of clear stance now gives the impression that current state government was only pretending to side with the people for votes, and are not doing anything about it now,” said Bangkuai.

“Shafie has to explain why Kaiduan and the TAED are important in terms if their benefits. he has to convince the people as well that the projects will be developed with great care to ensure that the environmental impacts are minimal,” said Puyok.

There has yet to be a decision on either projects.

3. Reversal on pump boat ban

Championing the people’s livelihood, Shafie lifted the ban on pump boats and reintroduced barter trading with southern Philippines which were enforced at the advice of security authorities in the interest of preventing undesirable elements from entering Sabah.

Cross border criminals, including kidnap-for-ransom groups and smugglers, tend to favour pump boats for their speed and ability to move quickly in waters, even when shallow.

 “This could be good for some fishermen and coastal businesses whose livelihood has been affected, but with security at stake, I think the risk is too high. As it is, there are some intrusions and kidnapping happening where the culprits were using pump boats,” said Bangkuai.

4. The case for state rights, and increased oil royalty

Arguably the biggest political question at stake is whether Shafie can compel the federal government to give in to Sabah’s demands to reinstate the state’s right as enshrined in the MA63 as well as fulfill their pledge to increase the oil royalty from 5 to 20 per cent.

“Shafie’s promise of fighting for the oil royalty and MA63 are nothing new. It has been in the agenda of successive governments since PBS. In fact Shafie, in reply to my question at the state assembly, said he was confident the request for 20 per cent oil royalty would be finalised before end of the year. It's already December and there is no concrete indication it could be met,” said Bangkuai.

“He should tackle the MA63 head-on and in a practical manner, unlike many of the so-called Sabah champions who are only interested in raising anti-federal sentiments,” said Puyok.

So how did Shafie score?

While Shafie’s first six months in office have been riddled with a mix of issues, political observers said he has the benefit of doubt from the people, but also carry a lot of expectations in the “new Malaysia.”

“People are expecting some things to happen quickly, like in peninsular Malaysia, but there is a seeming lack of direction when he takes too long to deliberate ― that is the appointing chairmans for boards and GLCs, Tanjung Aru project and even his stance on child marriage could have been a lot better,” said a political analyst who declined to be named.

The analyst said that the Warisan government must be seen to be on equal footing with the federal government, reminding them that several Warisan leaders hold prominent positions in the federal government as should have more authority and accountability.

“For instance, the MA63 and return of 40 per cent of revenue to the state. These things, although tedious in nature, should be delivered to some extent. There should be more evidence of equal partnership or else it is just like before ― an example of federal powers lording over Sabah again.

“I don’t think the public thinks he performed badly, but there is much to do and improve upon, and there has yet to be concrete signs of a “better” government,” he said.

Source: https://www.malaymail.com/s/1706276/shafies-year-end-rated-the-good-the-bad...-and-the-well-see

Pairin's Mixed Legacy

Sabah's former Chief Minister Joseph Pairin Kitingan has finally made the decision to leave politics for good. 

Pairin is synonymous with Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS), a multiracial party he founded in 1985. Pairin would be best remembered for winning the Tambunan by-election against the mighty Berjaya party and subsequently the 1985 and 1986 state elections - a period in Sabah politics marked by betrayals, mayhem in the capital city of Kota Kinabalu, and dramatic incidents in the Istana. Many would also remember Pairin for handing over power in a gentlemanly manner to UMNO in 1994 - an act that earned him respect from his comrades and foes alike. Pairin has personal qualities that very few politicians have: loyal, tactful and forgiving.

In delivering his farewell speech at the PBS 33rd party congress, Pairin took the opportunity to admonish United Pasok Momogun Kadazandusun Organisation (UPKO) for its act of  "betrayal" in the aftermath of the GE14.

There are reasons why Pairin was upset about UPKO. 

Pairin knew that multiracialism was the way forward for Sabah and democracy as an attractive ideology to sell to Sabah's diverse society. PBS was formed based on these core principles. Together with Joseph Kurup (PBRS President), Bernard Dompok (UPKO founding President) and others, he formed PBS in 1985. But PBS that led the Sabah Government from 1985-1994 was removed from power after a spate of resignations from party leaders to form PBRS, SAPP and PDS (later UPKO). To date only PBRS remains in Gabungan Bersatu Sabah with PBS.

Pairin could have retired in style if he pushed for reforms in PBS and chose not to contest in GE14. But changes in PBS were painfully slow, resulting in the party losing its appeal among the key ethnic groups in Sabah including the Kadazandusun. When he decided to contest in GE14 and lost to his younger brother Jeffrey in Tambunan, it only reaffirmed the fact that the Huguan Siou (Paramount Leader of the Kadazandusun) was gradually losing his popularity as political leader.

Now PBS is left with Dr Maximus Ongkili and a handful of Pairin's loyal supporters in the party. All eyes are on Dr Maximus on what he will do next to rejuvenate PBS. PBS can leverage on its decisive win in one Muslim Bumiputera and five Kadazandusun seats in GE14 to position itself as a formidable player in Sabah.

To remain relevant in Sabah's changing political landscape, here are the areas where Dr Maximus has to tackle head-on:

1. To improve the party's image and attract more new members. PBS has strong and very appealing core struggles but it has failed in convincing the young people to join the party. Dr Max's challenge is to make the party more attractive to young professionals and graduates. There are many young people who are attracted to PBS' progressive platform but are discouraged by the old guards' lukewarm attitude towards them. It is easier for PBS to lure the young people as it has a broader policy outlook and experience to represent the multiracial Sabah but the question is, is the party ready to allow fresh and young blood to be part of PBS' rejuvenation programme? If Warisan has Jo-Anna Rampas and Darell Leiking, and UPKO Ewon Benedict, Nelson Angang, Felix Saang, etc, who are the emerging young leaders in PBS? 

2. To increase the number of non- Kadazandusun members in the party. As it is now, PBS is heavily Kadazandusun even though it espouses multiracialism. No non-Kadazandusun or non-Christian has ever been elected president. And more non-Kadazandusun and Chinese members are abandoning PBS to join other parties. To make the party more attractive, it should improve its multiracial composition and more drastically, amend the constitution to allow the party's president to be rotated among the key ethnic groups in Sabah. 

3. PBS should talk more about economic issues ie how to create employment for young Sabahans, how to make Sabah an attractive place for investments, etc. This will not deviate PBS from its core regional struggles. PBS can make a lot of difference if it can relate the MA63, autonomy, Sabah's constitutional rights with people's daily needs. Dr Max should take on the Sabah issues not as an academician and but as a policymaker.

Source: https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2018/11/15/pairin-delivers-emotional-goodbye-speech/ fbclid=IwAR1MYublr1NbAWrVpB6KkYxdueX3CGCsjVLWhBYAg890l1E3kSJuPSdeKUY

Tourism Tax Fiasco: Good Policy Turns "Bad"

The recent spat between Minister of Tourism Nazri Aziz and his Sarawak counterpart Abdul Karim Hamzah is not about the Sarawak/Sabah government against the federal government or the people of East Malaysia against the people of Semenanjung as many people think it is. It is about the way Nazri responded to Karim who wanted the Tourism Tax to be deferred in Sarawak as “local concerns” must be taken into consideration before the tax is implemented. The same concern was raised by a senator from Sarawak, Zaiedi Suhaili, during a debate in the senate. As soon as Nazri fired his first salvo against Karim, calling him “samseng” (thug) and “setahun jagung” (greenhorn), all hell broke loose. Sabah and Sarawak leaders, joined by thousands of social media users, criticised Nazri for his remarks against Karim. Some went further by saying that the Tourism Tax is “illegal”, an attempt to undermine the Malaysian Agreement and to erode Sabah’s and Sarawak’s rights in the federation. But is this the case?

Tourism Tax falls under the federal government's jurisdiction after it was included as part of the items in the Federal List in 1994. The federal government has the legal right under the constitution to impose tax in the federation. Sabah, prior to the formation of Malaysia, gave up its right over taxation (except sales tax) in replacement for Special Grant as stipulated in Part Four of the Tenth Schedule of the Federal Constitution. Does the Tourism Tax undermine the Malaysian Agreement? Does it erode Sabah’s and Sarawak’s rights? Some in the legal fraternity don’t think so as there is a clear demarcation of power between the federal and state governments as stipulated in the Federal, State and Concurrent List. The onus is on Sabah and Sarawak to include tourism as part of their jurisdiction in the future through the country’s legal and constitutional process.

The next issue raised by many is, were Sabah and Sarawak properly consulted before the parliament debated the Tourism Tax Bill? If by consultation here we mean providing the avenue for Sabah and Sarawak leaders to give their opinions, there is a platform for them to do so through a debate in parliament. But according to Hansard record, only Darell Leiking, a member of parliament for Penampang in Sabah and Zaiedi Suhaili, a senator from Sarawak, took part in the debate. What could be the reason for the “absence” of Sabah and Sarawak lawmakers from such an important debate? Crucially, only Nazri and the Ministry of Tourism can explain whether Sabah and Sarawak tourism officials/stakeholders were involved in discussions at the departmental/ministerial/grassroots levels prior to the tabling of the Tourism Tax Bill.

It looks like the issue is not about the Tourism Tax per se but the importance of a clearly established and transparent line of communication between federal and state officials in the course of formulating and implementing a policy. By the way, given proper implementation and monitoring, the country will stand to benefit from the Tourism Tax (as explained at length in the Hansard). Knowing Nazri, many are not really surprised by his “legendary” outburst but being a senior minister or “anak jantan” as he likes to call himself, he should by now know that it is not just what you say that matters but how you say it.

Nation has lost a statesman

All he wanted to do was to spend more time with his family and retire gracefully from politics, but the call of duty obligated the late Tan Sri Adenan Satem to leave the comfort of his private life to helm one of Malaysia’s most geographically-challenging and culturally-diverse states. After taking over as Sarawak’s chief minister from “strongman” Tun Abdul Taib Mahmud (now the Yang di-Pertua Negeri) in early 2014, Adenan did not wait long to introduce a slew of people-oriented policies, such as abolishing tolls, lowering ferry fares, reducing electricity tariffs, recognising the UEC (Unified Examination Certificate) and defending Sarawak’s constitutional rights. 

He demonstrated to Sarawakians that he could deliver through his “53 principles and actions”. In less than two years in power, Adenan’s popularity soared and he enjoyed strong support from Sarawak’s multicultural and multireligious communities. He distinguished himself as a people-oriented leader, who was willing to take actions for their cause. He broke barriers by presenting himself as the people’s leader. Adenan could be seen everywhere, be it at a restaurant enjoying his favourite food, at an airport waiting for his flight, or at a pasar just like what the ordinary people do. And, he did this without the company of bodyguards or personal assistants. In short, Adenan could mingle with just anybody, irrespective of race, religion and social class. Having earned the respect and admiration of Sarawakians, Adenan went to the 2016 state polls with the ambitious agenda of winning big for ruling coalition Barisan Nasional (BN). 

Some, however, were pessimistic about Adenan’s chances given the people’s lackadaisical attitude towards BN. Others were not confident that the “Adenan factor” would be decisive enough to bring back the Chinese votes to BN. Despite the attempts by the opposition to undermine Adenan’s popularity, they admitted that he was a formidable force behind BN’s campaign strategy. A seasoned, witty and strategic politician, Adenan capitalised on the opposition’s weaknesses by addressing the issues they raised head on and by cleverly “seizing” their “Sarawak for Sarawakians” sloganeering. Adenan showed that his demands for autonomy were not simply rhetoric by presenting to Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak the state’s demand for autonomy in 13 administrative areas. Adenan’s presidential style of campaigning worked like magic. The BN won 72 of the 82 seats contested. The PBB (Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu), the largest party in Sarawak led by Adenan, made a clean sweep, winning all 40 seats it contested. He also proved his critics wrong by winning five seats formerly held by the opposition. The Adenan factor proved to be decisive in breaking DAP’s dominance in the Chinese-majority areas. 

It is not an understatement that BN won in Sarawak because the people trusted and had confidence in Adenan. Indeed, Adenan’s successor will have big shoes to fill. The immediate challenge will be to effectively implementing Adenan’s “53 principles and actions” and fulfilling his autonomy demands for Sarawak. Adenan will be remembered as one of the rare leaders who achieved so much in such a short time. He reminded us that those in power ought to do the right thing for the ordinary people. He will be remembered as the person who broke the barrier between the leader and the led. We will remember his chants of “oh... ha” and “you… you”, which were uttered not without a purpose: Adenan wanted to tell us that he is part of us and without us, he is nobody. For Malaysia, the country has lost a statesman, who despite his persistent demands for autonomy, still believed in the preservation of the federation. Adenan strove to maintain the integrity of the federation by reminding us that Sarawak (and Sabah) did not join Malaysia, they formed (together with Malaya) this beloved country of ours. 

Rest in peace, Tok Nan.

Arnold Puyok
Kuching, Sarawak.

Source: http://www.nst.com.my/news/2017/01/203925/nation-has-lost-statesman

GALVANISING SABAH OPPOSITION NOT AN EASY TASK, RECKONS LECTURER

KOTA KINABALU: A political analyst reckons that Sabah’s fractured opposition will continue to remain divided even with former Umno vice president, Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal offering a new game.

Unimas (University Malaysia Sarawak) lecturer, Dr Arnold Puyok observed that Shafie is unlikely to spark off a united opposition front despite early signs of warming up to his entry in to state politics.

“In electoral terms, as for now, it is going to be Barisan Nasional versus all the warring parties that includes Shafie’s (yet to be named and launched) party, Datuk Wilfred Bumburing (Parti Cinta Sabah), Datuk Dr Jeffrey Kitingan (STAR Sabah), Datuk Lajim Ukin (Sabah PKR) and to some extent, Datuk Yong Teck Lee (Sabah Progressive Party).

He reckoned that Shafie who is teaming up with former PKR vice president Darell Leiking to lead the new local based party will face a “tall order” in cobbling together the divided local and national opposition in the state.

“Without fresh leaders with more pragmatic alternative policies, the so-called local opposition alliance will only be good at splitting the votes but not at giving an alternative voice to Sabahans,’’ Dr Puyok suggested.

“If the new local party wants to win support along the issues of state rights, what difference can they make as the Barisan is also taking on local issues like never before,’’ he said.

He also felt that both opposition PKR and DAP were still relevant in Sabah politics as they had won more seats in the last general elections as compared to the local based parties.

“The fact that the DAP and PKR managed to win seats in the last elections shows that Sabahans are willing to vote beyond local parties. It is lack of vision to develop Sabah within the federation of Malaysia and poor leadership that cause the DAP and PKR to lose popularity,’’ he added.

Several PKR and DAP assemblymen are widely speculated to join Shafie’s party that is to be launched sometime next month.

Dr Puyok also opined that Shafie himself lacked the alternative vision for Sabah and there was a general apprehension about his agenda in returning to state politics that will see many watching him but remain non-committal.

“So far, we have not heard anything new from Shafie as far as the fight for Sabah is concerned.

“Shafie was a former pro-federal leader with little grassroots influence in Sabah. Shafie’s sudden u-turn will put him in an awkward position among Sabah regional champions,’’ he added.

He said issues of who is going to lead the new Sabah-based opposition coalition and whether the local opposition would be willing to contest under a common symbol would be tough to resolve.

A source close to Shafie has disclosed that the Semporna Member of Parliament has been in contact with his fellow opposition leaders, both in Sabah and at federal level, to try and work out an understanding so as to prevent multi-cornered fights in the forthcoming general elections.

Source: http://www.borneotoday.net/galvanising-sabah-opposition-not-easy-task-reckons-lecturer/

How far can Shafie go?

Shafie Apdal, who withdrew from UMNO recently is trying hard to revive his political career. It must have been tough for him, now that his political career is hanging in the balance. There have been a lot of talks lately about Shafie’s next move. Will he form a new party and align himself closely with local-based opposition parties? Can Shafie make a difference during these tiring times in Malaysian politics especially Sabah? 

Like Sabah PKR chief Lajim Ukin whose support his confined within his Bisaya stronghold in Beaufort, Shafie’s base support is mainly concentrated in the East Coast and Semporna proper. During his heyday as federal minister, Shafie spent most of time juggling between his ministerial and party duties at the federal level. Through a combination of strong family ties and patronage protection, Shafie cultivated an almost unbreakable relationships with the Bajau and Suluk electorates in the East Coast. 

Outside the East Coast, however, Shafie is persona non grata. Unlike other UMNO leaders such as Musa Aman, Salleh Said and Masidi Manjun, Shafie have no affinity with the Kadazandusun generally. This is one of Shafie’s main weaknesses. 

Securing the support of the Kadazandusun in particular is important as they collectively represent roughly between 30-40 percent of Sabah’s total population. Shafie’s close association with the KDM  (Kadazandusun) Malaysia is seen as his attempt to win the support of the Kadazandusun. But the Kadazandusun mainly see the KDM Malaysia as an outfit to weaken the Kadazandusun support to KDCA (Kadazandusun Cultural Association) and the PBS (Parti Bersatu Sabah). Without a clear vision and credible leadership, the future of KDM Malaysia remains uncertain.  

Most Kadazandusun are with the KDCA and USDA (United Sabah Dusun Association) — two of the oldest and more popular Kadazandusun-based associations. The latest addition is the MNC (Momogun National Congress) that is gaining popularity for its pragmatic socioecomic empowerment programmes. Without strong Kadazandusun support base, it will be difficult for Shafie to widen his grassroots support outside the East Coast.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Shafie’s next challenge is to form an alliance with local-based opposition parties. This will not be easy as Shafie is long known for his pro-federal policies. Shafie’s sudden u-turn could backfire as many see it as his attempt to revive his fading popularity. The questions are: what difference can Shafie make? Will he propose different if not more innovative policy prescriptions for a better Sabah? Or, will he simply promote the “Sabah for Sabahans" battlecry without offering anything constructive in return for Sabahans?  

With the clock ticking, Shafie is racing against time to make his next move. It is possible for Shafie to form his own party or take over any of the existing parties in Sabah. Recruiting new members and making the new party relevant to Sabahans will be Shafie’s main challenge. If Shafie succeeded in forming an alliance with local-based opposition parties, what policy platform would the alliance promote and who would lead it? 

Whether he likes it or not, Shafie, the new “Sabah champion”, will have to join the other local champions long known for their anti-federal and strong regional outlook. While many in Sabah have welcomed Shafie’s return to state politics, others have this to say to him: “all the best gaman”.

Najib's political headache

These are tiring times for Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak. Najib has so far managed to stay in power despite the flurry of attacks on his leadership. Political debacles have almost cost Najib his prime ministership and the popularity of the ruling coalition Barisan Nasional (BN). Facing the prospect of losing the people’s mandate in the 2018 general election, Najib is racing against time to regain public confidence.

Earlier in 2015, an expose revealed a controversial 2.6 billion ringgit (US$700 million) ‘donation’ into Najib’s personal account. This was initially attributed to Najib siphoning funds from the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB), Malaysia’s state-owned development company. Najib appeared on television to answer questions from critics and gave point-by-point rebuttals to the 1MDB controversy.

But these have failed to assuage public dissatisfaction. Some critics still believe that Najib siphoned public funds from the 1MDB — even though that allegation has not been proven in court or by independent audit firms. Najib is now left with the CEO of the 1MDB Arul Kanda to address the misconception toward the 1MDB and to implement a rationalisation plan in order to reduce its debt.
Najib’s problems do not end there. The 2.6 billion ringgit in his personal account has dented his reputation further, even though the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission has evidence that the money was from a donor, not the 1MDB. Critics are still unhappy as questions such as what the money was for, and whether there were any strings attached, have not been answered.

The person who has launched a major ‘crusade’ to end Najib’s political career is none other than Najib’s predecessor-turned-nemesis Mahathir Mohamad. Mahathir — the ‘PM slayer’, as one author has put it — is the single most potent force behind the campaign to oust Najib. The 90-year-old former premier’s allegations against Najib are not without defect, but many think that Mahathir is telling the truth.

After 22 years of entrenched rule in Malaysia, Mahathir is seen by some as the ‘knight in shining armour’ that could save Malaysia from Najib. Even though the prospect of Mahathir making a comeback is next to impossible, he still has influence in the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), Mahathir and Najib’s political party. Anti-Najib party members are supporting Mahathir either openly or secretly. While most UMNO divisional leaders are firmly behind Najib, this may change depending on the momentum of the anti-Najib movement in UMNO.

Although he is criticised and mocked on the home front, Najib has scored some brownie points on the international stage. In the aftermath of the MH17 crash in July 2014, Najib negotiated deftly with pro-Russian rebel leaders to allow rescuers to extract bodies and to secure crucial flight information from the crash site in eastern Ukraine.

Najib has to also play a tough balancing act dealing with China and the United States — the two major superpowers arguing over territorial disputes in the South China Sea. Najib has established good ties with both countries by allowing both American and Chinese naval ships to use Malaysian ports for transport or military training purposes.

So, can Najib and the BN survive the general election in 2018? The answer to this question depends on how Najib and the ruling party react to calls for reform. Before attempting to address Malaysia’s domestic impasse, it is important for Najib to exert a stronger and firmer hold on the government, especially the civil service. The civil servants are the key to the success of Najib’s ‘transformation agenda’. But some civil servants are bent on Najib’s downfall. Many sensitive government documents have been leaked on social media and opposition leaders have used them to attack the government.

The BN should learn from Singapore’s People’s Action Party (PAP), which won the 2015 Singapore general election. Its success taught a valuable lesson to incumbent governments around the world about securing electoral victory in the face of growing public disenchantment. The key to winning is to boldly address public concerns by making tough policy decisions. In the 2011 election, the PAP won with a popular vote of only 60 per cent — the lowest it had ever recorded in its 60 years of history. It reacted proactively to public criticism, and changed many of its policy positions on issues such as affordable housing, immigration and economic stagnation. In September, the PAP won the election with 69.9 per cent of the popular vote.

The PAP’s major electoral victory in Singapore shows that a dominant party system is still alive in Southeast Asia. In Malaysia, the BN lost its two-thirds majority in 2008 and 2013. There is a real possibility that its popular support will dip further in the coming election. It is important for Najib and the BN to display some real leadership in addressing people-oriented issues.

Najib should push for good governance and take matters of public interest to heart. The goods and services tax has forced more people to dig deeper into their pockets despite rising prices of essential goods and housing. The most hit economically are young middle-income professionals and graduates. While the 2.6 billion ringgit donation, the 1MDB and Mahathir’s challenge are major headaches for Najib, they will not matter much in determining his and the BN’s future in Malaysian politics.

First published on East Asia Forum (http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2015/11/26/najibs-political-headache-2/)