political tsunami stikes malaysia

i slept at 4 am yesterday to watch the 2008 election results and i was not surprised at all that the opposition was able to make inroads in many constituencies across the nation. several of my predictions especially on sabah are wrong but nationally it turns out that indeed the opposition has managed to deny bn a big win this time. in sabah, the opposition only managed to win two seats through dap in kota kinabalu and sri tanjung respectively. the muslim bumiputera and the kadazandusun are solidly behind bn. why did the muslim and kadazandusun back the bn candidates though there was strong indication initially that they would vote for the opposition? well, it is true that one should not rely too heavily on assumption and unsubtantiated claims. the claims that some section of the muslim community in sabah are not happy with musa and umno are completely flawed if the election results are taken into consideration. all the muslim seats went to bn/umno and pkr was not able to even pose a strong challenge to umno. except in a few seats, the kadazandusun this time gave their solid support to bn as they knew they would not gain anyting from the opposition and that they thought it is better to back the bn then supporting the weak alliance of opposition parties. but several leaders though were able to pose strong challenge. a case in point is jeffrey in bingkor. if not for the presence of independent candidates in the area, jeffrey could have won the seat against justin guka of bn. the latter only managed to scrap through with a 174-majority vote. this shows that jeffrey is still a force to be reckoned with in sabah politics. when he stood at the same consitituency, challenging joseph kurup in 2004 as an independent candidate, jeffrey only lost to the former with a 300-something vote (i have not checked the validity of this fact. i will pose another version if there's any mistake).

another pkr candidate jurin gunsalam in tandek also had to be denied by the split votes caused by the independents. if the independents gave way to jurin to content one-on-one with anita, the latter's winning margin would only be 200-something votes. other constituency which shows the opposition's strong presence is in kepayan. edward khoo of bn won the seat with a majority vote of 2062. if the opposition parties dap and pkr set aside their ego, they could have denied khoo a victory in kepayan and thus provided another opposition seat in the state assembly. it goes without saying the the failure of the opposition in sabah to form a strong pact resulted in the convincing win of the bn.

i am, however, correct in saying that the opposition will be able to make inroads in several chinese and indian seats in peninsular malaysia and that bn is still strong in sarawak. the problem with the opposition in sarawak, i would like to reiterate, is that they are unable in forming a formidable alliance and thus give bn a significant challenge.

okay guys, i will give more thought on the elections once i have gone through the election results in detail.

the upcoming 2008 general elections: things to be closely observed

after about two years and a half struggling to finish my thesis, i finally managed to complete the first draft and sent it to the graduate school for examination. i hope the examiners would not take a long time to read my thesis. my focus now is on preparing lectures to diploma and bachelor students at uitm sabah campus.

i want to write something about the upcoming general elections today. i think it is interesting because of several reasons: first, it will show whether the badawi administration is still supported by the electorate after much criticims ranging from its inability to weed out corruption to its failure in reviving the stagnant economy. second, it will test the opposition's power after the strong grassroots political mobilisation led by former deputy prime minister anwar ibrahim particularly in rural areas. third, it will show whether the ruling barisan nasional will be able to maintain the chinese and indian support. indication is that bn might lose several chinese and indian seats in the peninsular malaysia. already, the opposition has played out the hindraf issue and several hindraf key leaders have shown strong desire to stand as candidates.

personally, whatever the observation is, i think bn would win the elections but with a reduced number of seats particular in sabah and several chinese and indian seats in the peninsular malaysia. i don't think the opposition would be able to make an impact in sarawak as what it did in 2004. at best, i think the opposition might be able to retain its status quo while at the same time deny bn's majorities in several marginal seats. part of the problem among the opposition parties in sarawak is that they are unable to find a comprehensive solution to seat allocation and that they fail to campaign aggressively on a number of contentious issues such as the ncr issue, logging, and the "orang ulu" problem. having said that, the taib administration is still well entrenced in sarawak and as usual he will give bn a big win.

in sabah, the opposition might win several seats, in particular kadazandusun seats because the kadazandusun are now split between pbs, upko and pbrs. the sentiment played out by the opposition led by jeffrey and his keadilan comrades is that the kadazandusun has been alienated and that their rights have been ignored. the kadazandusun are very sentimental about their rights and they have long thought that their economic marginalisation is something which their leaders have failed to address. since pbs is no longer seen as champion to the kadazandusun people, the kadazandusun might turn their back on pairin and support jeffrey instead. upko might create an upset if it could project its image as the new champion to the kadazandusun people. what it needs to do is to convince bn to allocate it with more kadazandusun-majority seats. this if this were to happen, it would draw strong reaction from pbs which currently controls the kadazandusun seats .

sabah development corridor: the government must ensure it is not just an election gimmick

sabah has finally come up with its own corridor called "sabah development corridor" launced by the pm a couple of days ago. i am not sure, it might be the seventh development corridor in malaysia after the first corridor introduced by tun mahathir not long ago. the sabah development corridor will focus on developing three niche areas namely manufacturing, tourism and agriculture. i dont have the copy of the blueprint for sabah's 18-year development plan though i was made to understand that it is distributed for public viewing. when attending my public administration class the other day, most of my students were missing. i was told that they were asked to attend the launching of the corridor. but few made it to the class and i didn't mince my words to ask them what they understand about the corridor. well done!...they knew the basics. but when i asked if the project is good for sabah and its people in the long run, i received mixed reactions.

let me put it this way. i think what the present government should do is to fulfill all those promises made during the past elections. in 1994, i remember, under the sabah baru concept, the government had promised among other things, to provide a roof for every sabahan and as well as to ensure zero poverty by the year 2000. now 16 years has passed, sabah, though rich in natural resources, is still among the poorest state in malaysia. and recently according to the undp report, the kadazandusun are among the poorest of malaysian ethnic minority. we want to know what has the government achieved so far in tackling the issue of poverty eradication, as well as other pressing issues as per contained in the previous election manifesto. as rakyat, we want to ensure the government has fulfilled its promises first before giving our support for another costly development project. the government must ensure this project, as one of my student put it, is not an election propaganda and certainly not, using the pm's own words, "angan-angan mat jenin".

i will support the corridor provided i am convinced that a feasibility study has been done to look into its benefits to sabah and its people. i would love to read the study and give my input in areas which i am familiar with. in the same way, the government must also educate the public on the importance of having the corridor in sabah. i hope it is not another empty promise as a means to influence the people's minds to support the government whose term of office will expire very soon.

The 2008 Budget: An Election "Sweetener"

I have not gone through the 2008 Budget in detail but I would like to post my general comment on it. In my next entry, I will provide both the plus and minus points of the budget for all of us to discuss.

CERTAINLY THE 2008 BUDGET MANAGES TO AROUSE A FEEL GOOD FACTOR AMONG THE PEOPLE IN LIGHT OF THE UPCOMING GENERAL ELECTION. APART FROM PROVIDING VARIOUS SWEETENERS TO THE PEOPLE, THE BUDGET DOES NOT ADDRESS OTHER PRESSING ISSUES SUCH AS HOW TO SPUR DOMESTIC ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES AND WHAT THE GOVERNMENT IS GOING TO DO IN FACING STIFF COMPETITION IN THE INTERNATIONAL MARKET LIBERALISATION. THE BUDGET ALSO FAILS TO ADDRESS THE ISSUE OF TRANSPARENT GOVERNMENT AND DEMOCRATIC GOVERNANCE. I WOULD HOPE TO SEE THAT EFFORTS ARE BEING PUT IN PLACE (PARTICULARLY IN THE MONETARY TERMS) TO ACHIEVE THE GOOD GOVERNANCE OBJECTIVE BUT SADLY I HAVE NOT SEEN THIS IS TOUCHED IN THE BUDGET. HOW ABOUT THE GOVERNMENT’S ASPIRATION TO SEE A HEALTHIER MALAYSIAN SOCIETY? I DON’T THINK THE GOVERNMENT IS SERIOUS AS THE “SIN TAX” (TAXES ON CIGARETTES AND LIQUOR”) HAS REMAINED IN ITS CURRENT RATE. I WOULD LIKE TO MAINTAIN THAT I AM NOT IMPRESSED BY THE BUDGET 2008. IF I WERE TO MAKE COMPARISON, THE RECENTLY RELEASED AUDITOR-GENERAL’S REPORT HAS DONE A RELATIVELY BETTER JOB.

I read both the The Star and New Sunday Times on Sunday (September 9) and thought that it was the former which did a better reporting by highlighting the mismanagement of public funds as contained in the Auditor-General's Report.

Is Malaysia an Islamic or Secular State?

The debates are still on-going but there appears to be no seriousness in Malaysia to end the polemics once and for all. Ending the polemics might not be possible but if there is a forum to explain to the men-in-the-street of whether Malaysia is an Islamic or secular state, then, I think, the issue would continue to be sensasionalised. The national-level forum should involve high-ranking government officials, academics, community leaders and those approriate individuals. The discussion should stick to fact than emotion by looking at the Federal Constitution--the highest law in Malaysia and the basis in which Malaysia was born. So far, the PM and DPM have failed to give satisfactory response on the issue. The MCA representative, so far, did a better job by furnishing various documents to support the secularist argument. But I, in particular, am touched by the analysis by Dr. Chandra Muzaffar of JUST who neither stated Malaysia being an Islamic state nor a secular one. He simply stated that Malaysia is a country that practices parliamentary democracy. I like Dr. Chandra's moderate and conciliatory approach than that of DPM and other UMNO politicians. The PM could have done a better job had he defended his view convincingly and invited Malaysian to a healthy debate on the issue. In the final analysis, to answer the question posted, my view is that MALAYSIA IS NOT AN ISLAMIC STATE, NOR IS IT A FULL SECULAR STATE. IT IS A SEMI-SECULAR STATE THAT PRACTICES PARLIAMENTARY DEMOCRACY. By SEMI-SECULAR it is meant that though the element of being a secular country exists in the Malaysian Constitution, one must not forget the fact that there're also religious elements being practised in the administration particularly those related to the religion of Islam. But those elements do not make Malaysia an Islamic state. It is just that it has been practised as part of the Malaysian heritage. We should preserve and defend the constitution as it is and ensure that it is not misinterpreted to serve the veiled interests of certain people.

Growing Unemployment in Malaysia? Perhaps here's the proof...

I went to accompany my cousin for a job interview at Kolej Yayasan Sabah. We did not expect that so many people (mostly young graduates) would attend. We came quite early, at 8.30 a.m. The first group of people who came with us numbered around 30-40. Then, after one hour later, the number swelled to 50, 60, and 100 just before lunch break. By 1.00 p.m. the number of people came to 200 and growing. This scenario reflects the problem facing the Malaysian workforce in particular young and fresh graduates. Based on my random conversations with those who attended, I knew that they were really desperate to find a job. In fact, my cousin has been jobless (I mean failing to find a permanent job) for 2-3 years after getting his degree from a public university. In Sabah, one can see a lot of shopping complexes being built not to mention countless of other construction projects. Well, I am not sure if these could be translated into jobs that would benefit the locals particularly the young graduates. The problem is, I think, there're too many university graduates with limited number of jobs created. In the economic terms, the supply has outnumbered the demand. Certainly, the economist, Mohd. Ariff of MIER, is right when he said that despite Malaysia's encouraging economic development, the serious problem of unemployment still persists. I am worried that if this problem continues, Malaysia's pool of human capital would be wasted to the detriment of our dream to achieve Vision 2020.

Crisis Brewing in Sabah PKR (Part 2)

I mentioned elsewhere in my writing (see, for instance, Malaysiakini [www.malaysiakini.com/letters/64324]) that PKR could become a force to be reckoned with in Sabah in the upcoming general election and that Dr. Jeffry's participation would put Sabah politics into limelight again. But the present leadership struggle in PKR would eventually weaken the party and give the impression that it would fail to pose a real challenge to Sabah BN led by UMNO. In this entry, I would like to write about the causes of the internal party squabble in PKR. It had been indicated earlier that Anwar wanted to replace Awang Tengah as Chief of Sabah PKR. Anwar's suggestion, however, was shot down by some especially by Sabah PKR Secretary, Kanul Gidol who suggested that the majority's voice must not be ignored when choosing the leader to lead Sabah PKR. The question that needs to be answered now is: why did Anwar prefer Ansari than Awang Tengah?

A source in PKR said that Ansari's Islamic appeal and his "convincing" approach to politics had caught Anwar's attention. Further, this source added, Ansari had managed to establish a "strategic alliance" with PKR's Director of Elections, Azmin Ali. It was suggested that it was probably Azmin who told Anwar to choose Ansari, considering the fact that Azmin has always been seen as Anwar's trusted ally cum adviser. Ansari's group has pointedly remarked that Anwar must be given the opportunity to appoint any individual to lead Sabah PKR as the party's constitution clearly states that the appointment of state leaders rests in the hand of the president (hence, Anwar's wife, Dr. Wan Azizah).

But Anwar's action, according to this source again, went against the larger agenda of the state PKR which wanted someone who understands what the state and its people need. The state PKR does not want to be told what to do and it wants to chart its own future in Sabah. Then, I asked this source, since PKR is a federal party and is headquatered in KL, doesn't this mean that it has direct control over Sabah and its policies must reflect the nation's interests at large? Well, this source unequivocally said no and insisted that Sabah must be treated differently. So is this struggle to pursue the "Sabah Agenda" contained in the "Tambunan Declaration" signed between Dr. Jeffry and Anwar Ibrahim? It might probably be yes according to the tune of Dr. Jeff's response to my questions when I asked his involvement in PKR. The lines are clearly drawn here and unless Anwar and his federal counterparts find the most appropriate solutions to solve once and for all PKR's internal party squabble in Sabah, they might have to face the risk of losing the support of the dissenting group which champions the Sabah Agenda.