On 18 January 2020, the people in Kimanis will once again go
to the polls. The more than 29,000 voters will decide whether it is Warisan/PH
or UMNO/BN.
This is not an ordinary by-election. It is arguably the by-election of all the by-elections
since GE14.
It is a litmus test for both Warisan and UMNO. Warisan’s
performance in the by-election is a reflection of its popularity. The
by-election will gauge the people’s feelings and support towards the
PH-Warisan-UPKO-led government. If Warisan wins, it will give Chief Minister
Shafie Apdal a major boost to lead Sabah until GE15. If Shafie can end the BN’s
winning streak, he will have the leverage to strengthen Warisan’s control over
local politics. UMNO needs to win this by-election too. Its victory will open
the possibility for the party to reemerge as a strong alternative to the PH-Warisan-UPKO
coalition. Sabah UMNO particularly has to prove that it is still a relevant
party in Sabah. The Kimanis by-election is a golden opportunity for UMNO to
discard the perception that it is a party stuck in a time warp.
As the by-election is a do or die mission for both parties,
choosing the “right” candidate is crucial. Warisan has chosen to field Karim
Bujang, a former UMNO stalwart and state assemblyman for Bongawan while UMNO
has fielded Mohamad Alamin, the Kimanis UMNO divisional head. Both are no
strangers to Kimanis voters. Both have their own strengths and weaknesses. The
voters know their track record and background very well.
The issues in the by-election vary from local issues such as
infrastructures to the PSS (Pass Sementara Sabah) or Sabah Temporary Pass. BN
has so far campaigned heavily against the PSS, persuading the voters to reject
Warisan as the PSS is akin to allowing illegals to stay in Sabah for good and a
stepping stone for them to apply for citizenship. The narrative revolves around
the slogan, "one vote for Warisan is a vote for the PSS”. Joining the BN
in attacking the Warisan are members of the Gabungan Bersatu Sabah (GBS) - PBS,
STAR and SAPP. This is an interesting partnership - one without a structured
platform but a common issue as a basis for a strategic cooperation.
No matter how hard Warisan is trying to allay public fears over
the PSS, the sentiment is that a substantial number of Sabahans are not
convinced that it is an effective strategy to solve the problems of illegals in
Sabah. It appears that people have more doubts now despite the explanation by
Warisan leaders. The PSS could be one of the potent issues that could tip the
balance of power in BN’s favour in Kimanis and beyond if it is not handled well
by Warisan.
The PSS is like MA63. It has become a polemic as well as an
emotive issue that can be easily exploited to win votes. Warisan is taking a
huge risk in introducing the PSS as its effectiveness can only be seen when it
is fully implemented. Thus without an effective communication strategy and a
long-term plan to address the issue of illegals, the PSS will continue to be
Warisan’s weak point.
'Development' is still a popular issue. Warisan campaigners
urge the voters to vote for Warisan for the sake of development (the same
strategy used by BN before). However, development as an issue is hard to sell
nowadays especially if is it sold by those who failed to deliver when they were
in power but now seeking to be reelected.
In Kimanis, ethnic factor plays a role too. But it is not
always as straightforward as in Peninsular Malaysia. Ethnicity is often
overshadowed by regional sentiment, cultural and religious similarities and
family ties. So, how the Brunei Malay, the Kadazandusun and the Chinese voters
vote will not solely be determined by ethno-religious sentiment alone.
It looks like Warisan has the advantage given that it
controls access to state resources and machinery. But as GE14 shows, patronage
politics and a well-oiled campaign machinery are no longer effective weapons to
galvanise support. Sabahans have the habit of punishing their leaders at the
polls. It is not impossible for the Kimanis voters to go against the tide.
Whatever the outcomes of the by-election are, the state government
will still remain under the PH-Warisan-UPKO coalition. But the Kimanis
by-election is enough to measure the feelings of the electorates towards the
performance of the government of the day and its elected leaders.
