A Cultural Shift Needed to Stop Party Hopping

Of late there has been much discussion on party hopping particularly in Sabah. Sabah has been the focus due to the penchant of its assemblymen to hop from one party to another; it is also understandable why Sabah is under the radar because its electorates are known to have changed their government at least five times.

The debates on party hopping revolve around whether an anti-hop law should be enacted to prevent assemblymen from switching party.

While technically an anti-hop law can provide some sort of deterrence to prevent party switching, it is not the be-all and end-all solution to address the larger issue of politician hopping at his whims and at the expense of the electorates he represents.

The issue of party hopping at least in the context of Sabah politics is already ingrained and has become part of the political culture of the state. Let’s look deeper into the justifications made by the two assemblymen recently who ditched the PH-Warisan-UPKO coalition and became PN-friendly. This is not the first time that our politicians tell us that the reason for them to leave their party is because they need to fulfill the “development needs” of their electorates which is only possible with a good working relationships with the ruling federal government.

Question: why cannot the respective federal government apparatuses be mobilised to assist the state opposition-held constituencies? Why must an opposition assemblyman subscribes to the ruling federal government’s partisan stance if he were to benefit from the development funds contributed by the non-partisan taxpayers’ money?

Is it the system that needs to be changed in order to discourage party hopping due to unfairness in which development funds are distributed? 

If it is, to disincentivise an assemblyman from ditching his party, a mechanism has to be put in place to ensure that development aid is distributed fairly based on the pressing needs of the electorates – and let’s say if the assemblyman thinks that he is being discriminated against, he can lodge a complaint to an ombudsman body (or a Grant Commission, whatever names one wants to call it) specifically looking at facilitation of inter-governmental cooperation and distribution of development funds. This is something that can be looked into before an anti-hop law is fully enacted.

If the “development argument” is just a “cover” to justify the above said assemblymen’s craving for power and personal greed, the solution for party hopping could only be found if our society is ready for a cultural shift led by the new generation of leaders.

Coming back to the issue of party hopping as a “culture” in Sabah. Sabah politics is very personality-driven. Political parties are formed by leading figures and disbanded – some abruptly – after the leaders are no longer active in politics. So, the party followers, instead of committing to the vision and ideals of the party, are loyal to the party leaders particularly when they are in power. Once the incentive to seek patronage support diminishes, the party will be dissolved and the leaders and their followers will either form a new party or join the existing one.

The approach to create a new political culture starts with education.

The party has a role to play as an agent to educate its members about politics, policy-making and the importance of voting conscientiously. Schools and universities play a vital role as well – the existing syllabi must be revamped to take into account the dynamics of politics in this changing era. Those 18 year-old Malaysians who will be voters soon will find themselves empowered to take part in charting the country’s future – but before they can use this “democratic power” they must first be guided and provided with the tools to make informed choices.

Only the young leaders of today can change the political culture of the country. They have seen a lot already and understand more the sentiments of the voters who yearn for progressive and transparent leadership. There is a potential for the young leaders not to repeat the mistakes of their older comrades and to introduce a new brand of politics based on principles, pragmatism and progressivism.

Coming back to the issue of party hopping. It is more than enacting a law to address what is already deeply rooted in the political culture of the country. The present institutions and laws can be strengthened to check the conducts of politicians. Only the new generation of leaders can stop the practice of party hopping by promoting a new political culture grounded in professionalism, ethics and accountability.  

New Malaysia and the Remaking of MA63*

MA63 (Malaysia Agreement 63) is a hot button issue in Sabah and Sarawak. It is an emotive issue just as the Malay rights and Islam to the Malays in Peninsular Malaysia.

What is MA63 and why it is such an important issue in Sabah and Sarawak?

MA63 in an agreement between the United Kingdom, Northern Ireland, Federation of Malaya, North Borneo (Sabah), Sarawak and Singapore (later ceased to become part of the federation in 1965) to form a new nation called Malaysia. Special rights and privileges were given to Sabah and Sarawak as part of their conditions to be incorporated into the new country. The justifications for these rights and privileges were: 1) “Sabah’s and Sarawak’s cultural and religious distinctiveness from Peninsular Malaysia, 2) the huge territories and massive resources they contribute to the federation, 3) problems of poverty and underdevelopment in these states, 4) the 1963 pact between the Federation of Malaya, United Kingdom, North Borneo, Sarawak and Singapore, and 5) international law basis to the guarantees for Sabah and Sarawak” (Shad Saleem 2012, pp. 24)  

The MA63 has eleven articles and annexes. Article 8 in particular necessitates the implementation of the assurances for Sabah and Sarawak as contained in the Inter-Governmental Committee Report.

The signing of the agreement was significant because it paved the way for the enactment of the Malaysia Act (Act No. 26 of 1963) which sealed the formation of Malaysia. With the enactment of the Malaysia Act, the Federal Constitution took over from the Malayan Constitution as a new “document of destiny” for Malaysia (Shad Saleem 2012).

“Breaches” to MA63?

Currently, most debates on MA63 are focused on the breaches to the assurances for Sabah and Sarawak. Sabah and Sarawak accuse the federal government of undermining their autonomy and want their position as “equal partners” and control over natural resources (oil and gas) be restored. They are also unhappy about the tendency of federal authorities to centralise decision-making at the expense of state autonomy. Some of these concerns are genuine and must be rectified. And any attempt to do so must not be based on regional sentiment.

There were attempts by the state and federal governments to address their conflicts but federal-state relations continue to sour. One of the reasons for the persistence of the federal-state conflict is that very often the Sabah and Sarawak issues are exclusively seen from the perspective of East Malaysian only. This problem is compounded further when opportunist politicians use the MA63 to pit East Malaysia against Peninsular Malaysia. Some are more interested in raising the anti-Peninsular Malaysia sentiment rather than solving the core problem of the federal-state conflict. This has to change. Sabah and Sarawak issues must be seen collectively as a national problem.

MA63 should not be seen from the Sabah and Sarawak ‘angle’ alone but from the perspective of the Malaysian federalism. Some people in Peninsular Malaysia perceive MA63 as the struggle to restore the rights of Sabah and Sarawak when in fact it is about strengthening the spirit of the Malaysian federalism. MA63 is about preserving the characters of each of the different entities in the federation.

MA63 is the bedrock of the Malaysian federalism. It lays the foundation for the Federal Constitution that outlines the relationship between the different territories in the federation. The Federal Constitution preserves the special position of Sabah and Sarawak. The rights and privileges for both states are clearly stated in the Federal Constitution (Articles 95D and 95E, 112D, and 161E), spanning financial, legislative, immigration and judicial jurisdictions.

Redefining “Equal Partnership”

Many have interpreted equal partnership based on Article 1 of the MA63 in which the 11 states in the then Malaya are seen as representing one component and the other two components being Sabah and Sarawak. Our founding fathers did not define equal partnership clearly nor was it extensively discussed in the committees tasked to propose the constitutional safeguards for Sabah and Sarawak.

In 1976, Sabah’s and Sarawak’s status is said to be relegated or downgraded to mere “states” just like the other “ordinary” states in Peninsular Malaysia. For some, the amendment was done as part of a nation-building effort to integrate Sabah and Sarawak into Malaysia’s parliamentary federal system (Edmund Langgu 2016). 

On 9 April 2019, a motion was tabled to amend Article 2 (1) of the Federal Constitution to restore Sabah’s and Sarawak’s position as equal partners in the federation. It was, however, failed as out of 197 members of parliaments attended, 138 voted against the motion while 59 abstained.  

The government said it would retable Article 2 (1) but amending it without specifying equal partnership and how it will affect the country’s federal structure will bring us to the path of uncertainty further down the road.

Moving Forward

So, where do we go from here? What do we need to do to address the issues arising from MA63 and in order to move forward in the context of new Malaysia?

First, the provisions of the MA63 must be effectively implemented particularly the recommendations of the Inter-Governmental Committee Report. But before this can be done, the state and federal governments must identify which jurisdictions must be returned to the state or remained under federal control. One way of doing this systematically is through the formation of a federal-state relationship committee to monitor the implementation of federal and state policies and to ensure that the responsibilities of the federal and state department do not overlap.

Second, any attempt to revisit the MA63 must be done with the aim of restructuring the Malaysia federalism in which the states are empowered to make decisions on their own according to their uniqueness and needs. The formation of the MA63 Special Cabinet Committee is commendable but to ensure the sustainability of the Malaysian federalism, the committee should expand its scope to look into the aspect of decentralisation of federal power. There is evidence linking decentralisation with good governance and economic growth (Woo 2019).

Third, the narrative of MA63 in the new Malaysia should be about strengthening the spirit of the Malaysian federalism, creating a sense of belonging to the nation, and increasing a sense of pride towards our nationhood as Malaysians. MA63 is about solidifying and strengthening the relationship between people of Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak. The government could consider choosing any state in Peninsular Malaysia as a host for the celebration of Malaysia Day. By doing this, we acknowledge the fact that MA63 would only be possible with the merging of three distinct territories to form Malaysia. We often hear people saying, “there would be no Malaysia without Sabah and Sarawak”. Similarly, without Malaya as one of the MA63 signatories, Malaysia would not have been possible.

The younger generation yearn for a better Malaysia – a Malaysia that belongs to all irrespective of race, religion and regional origin. They dream of a Malaysia where they can explore their talent and contribute to the development of their country. The new Malaysia is a promising start to realise the aspirations of our founding fathers through MA63.

*This amended version is reproduced here in light of the defiance of the states in observing the Conditional Movement Control Order by the federal government. 

References

Woo Wing Thye (2019). “Decentralisation - the key strategy for New Malaysia”. https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/466349, accessed 26 December 2019.

Edmund Langgu Saga (2016). “The ‘1976 amendment’ is an inclusive nation-building effort”. https://www.malaysiakini.com/letters/360760, accessed 26 December 2019.

Shad Saleem Faruqi (2012). The Bedrock of Our Nation: Our Constitution. Kuala Lumpur: Zubedy Sdn Bhd.

Sabah: breakthrough in the fixed deposit state (published in The Round Table, The Commonwealth Journal of International Affairs)

Abstract 

The Malaysian General Election 2018 (GE14) was one of the most anticipated in Malaysia’s political history as it was to determine the fate of Barisan Nasional (BN) under the leadership of the scandal-hit Prime Minister, Najib Razak. As in the 2008 and 2013 general elections, the East Malaysian states of Sabah and Sarawak once again became the frontline – or ‘fixed deposit’ – states as their support was crucial for BN’s survival. There were multiple claims that BN would return to power in Sabah once again, albeit with a reduced majority considering the strong anti-BN sentiment that was felt across all strata of society. The chances of Parti Warisan Sabah (Warisan), the key opposition party in the state, were downplayed as it was assumed that the party’s strength was only concentrated in the East Coast of Sabah. Hence, to comprehend BN’s defeat in the GE14, it is significant to turn towards the particular affinities and affiliations, particular commonalities and connections, particular stories and self-understandings, particular problems and predicaments of the socio-political dynamics in Sabah. Contrary to the claims that national politics were disconnected from Sabah, ‘problems and predicaments’ emanating from Peninsular Malaysia did indeed have a ‘connection and commonality’ upon the way they impacted people’s voting decision. The external factor of the strong tide of the anti-BN sentiment, fortified with the internal particularities of the political dynamics in the ‘stories and self-understandings’ of constituencies, illustrates how a jolt was caused in BN’s power bases.

KEYWORDS: Sabah, Kadazandusun, Malaysian General Election (GE14), Malaysian Agreement 1963, autonomy, federal-state relations

More here: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00358533.2020.1741888

Reflections on Covid19

In a couple of days, we would know if the Movement Control Order (MCO) would be continued or lifted by the government. The Covid19 has sent shockwaves around the world. As I write this, the number of Covid19 cases worldwide is already more than a million, with the US leading the rest. The number of deaths is also increasing at more than 70 000. Thankfully in Malaysia, the increase in the number of cases and deaths is not exponential – kudos to the government and especially the Ministry of Health for responding proactively to contain the spread of the virus – and not to mention the reassuring voice and calm demeanor of the Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin that helped reduce public anxiety.

These are trying times for us. Despite the breakthroughs made by some countries in reducing the number of infected people and deaths, we have to remain vigilant and take all the necessary actions in order to break the chain of transmission. As experts have said, unless a vaccine is readily available, the threats posed by Covid19 are far from over.

So, while waiting for the cure, the standard procedures adopted by most countries are to isolate those who are infected, prevent the spread of the virus through social distancing and encourage a good personal hygiene.

The challenge is how to mobilise government resources effectively in order to contain the virus. It is even more challenging to ensure that people comply with the “stay-at-home” rule. Should government use violence to keep people indoor just like what we see in India? Philippine President Duterte has ordered the police and army to shoot people who break the lockdown rule. Countries may have different strategies to deal with their domestic problems depending on their cultures, values and levels of acceptance towards violent punishment.

There is at least one incident in our country circulating on social media showing a police officer using a stick to punish violators. Is this action acceptable? While the police should be praised for working around the clock to implement the MCO, I personally disagree with the use of force particularly against defenseless violators.

Another interesting thing to see is the way people respond to the crisis, for instance, some would deliberately defy the MCO, giving all sorts of (incredulous) excuses such as going out to buy KFC, sending lunch to wife at work, etc. We have also seen some government officials trying to use the most “creative” ways imaginable to educate people on how to make the most of their time at home, for instance, the Ministry of Housing and Urban Wellbeing Guideline to encourage women to imitate “Doraemon’s voice when talking to their husband in order to avoid an argument. The guideline has since been taken down from the Internet after much criticism.

One minister even went to great lengths by wearing a full personal protective equipment (PPE) suit during a sanitation exercise by her ministry. The minister’s intention to help might be genuine but her action was deemed as an inappropriate publicity galore.

This crisis has also brought out the best in us, for instance, people helping those in need for food, equipment (esp. for the frontliners in hospital) spontaneously or sharing positive gestures to those who have to work to get things moving.

Despite the fears shared by the prophets of doom, I am optimistic that we will get out of this sooner or later.

This is not the first time that the world is wrecked by a pandemic caused by an invisible force. From the Antonine Plague, Cholera outbreak, Spanish Flu to MERS, one emerging trend is that we manage to reduce the rate of death worldwide from infectious diseases.

Time and again, our resilience and ingenuity have helped us overcome our most challenging experiences.

With the vast amount of information available to us and our improved knowledge in medical science and technology, we are in a better position than before to find a solution to this crisis.

At the individual level, the least what we can do is to apply social distancing, adopt a good personal hygiene, and take care of our overall wellbeing.

So let’s be optimistic, share positive vibes and encouraging stories.

Lastly, share hopes not fears.

Source: https://www.facebook.com/arnold.puyok/posts/3593463130669047

Article 2(1): Reimagining the New Federation of Malaysia

First of all I would like to thank all the panellists for coming to this forum - and thank you to all of you who come from near and far to participate in this event. 

The topic of the forum today is on the issues surrounding the proposed amendment to Article 1(2) in the Federal Constitution. More specifically, we are here today to discuss the implications of the proposed amendment to the Federation of Malaysia. 

If you read the book written by Stockwell on the declassified documents on the formation of Malaysia, the word federation is mentioned several times. There are discussions and debates between the colonial leaders on government system and the nature of the association between the Borneo Territories and Malaya. 

The words  'confederation' and 'super-federation' are also mentioned. But there is a great dilemma facing the colonial leaders in allowing the Borneo Territories to be 'independent' if confederation or super-federation is chosen as a framework for governance for the new country. Obviously, their main concern is security. 

So, a federal system is seen as ideal for a number of reasons. First, incorporating the Borneo Territories into the existing Federation of Malaya would save the British time and money. Second, the existing Federation of Malaya allows for the Central Government to usurp the power of the constituent units. Moreover, international affairs and defence come under the jurisdiction of the Central Government. 

The Malaysia Agreement 1963 Article 1(2) states that 'The Colonies of North Borneo and Sarawak and the State of Singapore shall be federated with the existing States of the Federation of Malaya...'

Now, this particular Article can be seen in a number of perspectives. For some, Sabah and Sarawak came as separate entities to be 'federated' with the Federation of Malaya. So, they argue that instead of existing as mere states like the other states in the Federation of Malaya, Sabah and Sarawak in fact formed Malaysia with the Federation of Malaya as 'equal partners' - some say as independent 'territories' or 'regions'. 

The Federal Constitution states that 'the states of the Federation shall be Johore'... all the states including Sabah and Sarawak written in one paragraph. 

Before the amendment in 1976, the Constitution stated that the Federation shall be a) the states of Malaya, b) the Borneo states and c) Singapore. So instead of putting all the states in one paragraph, sub clauses were added for the Borneo states and Singapore. Some look at this to signify the 'status' of the Borneo states and Singapore. Others argue that this is not more than differentiating the states in Malaya and those in Borneo due to their distinct geographical, cultural and historical background. 

The proposed amendment to Article 1(2) is an attempt to 'reinstate' the original description of the Federation of Malaysia. For most people, the reinstatement would allow Sabah and Sarawak to reclaim their equal partners status. 

So, this brings us to another issue of defining the concept of 'equal partnership' in the context of the Malaysia Agreement and the Federation of Malaysia. I leave it to the panellists later to construct and deconstruct the concept. 

But the main purpose of this forum is to discuss the implications of this amendment to the structure of the Federation of Malaysia. I watched the debate in parliament with great interest. But what is obvious is that our MPs are divided. While the PH MPs supported the amendment, those from the GPS showed their reservation and abstained from voting. The UMNO and PAS MPs in particular raised their concern as well. I remember one particular MP from Peninsula Malaysia saying, if Sabah and Sarawak insist on being equal partner, the same status must be accorded to the states in Peninsula Malaysia as well. This means giving them the same power and rights granted to Sabah and Sarawak in the Federal Constitution. 

To conclude, I would like to share with you an analogy that I have always used to describe Malaysia. It is like a new house. A house that is still being built, renovated, refurbished - or whatever words you want to use. The occupants have many ideas on how they want the house to be built - where to put he door, the window, the living room, etc. It is a nice house. It has a strong foundation. It has stood the test of time. Just like any other houses, this house is full of defects. But thankfully despite its many weaknesses, the foundation and the structural integrity of the house remain intact. If the house is to remain strong and stable, each of the occupants must be given a role to address the defects. 

SEEDS is here to offer our time, energy and all the things that we know to build a stronger, successful and progressive Sabah and Malaysia. 

On that note, I wish the panellists and all the participants a fruitful and intellectually stimulating forum ahead. 

Thank you.

*Delivered at the opening of the forum on "Article 2(1): Reimagining the New Federation of Malaysia" organised by SEEDS Sabah.  

Patronage Politics and GLCs Reform in Sabah

I would like to frame my talk within the concept of patronage politics that is so pervasive and continue to dominate Sabah politics.

My talk today is a work in progress on patronage politics in Sabah. So most of the things that I'll share today are not new and are based on the work of Regina Lim ("Federal-State Relations in Sabah: The Berjaya Administration, 1976-85") and David Brown ("Why Governments Fail to Capture the Economic Rent: the Unofficial Appropriation of Rain Forest Rent in Insular Southeast Asia Between 1970 and 1999"). 

More studies have to be done in order to understand the changing and evolving relationship between politicians and businessmen under patronage politics. 

Patronage politics is a practice where powerful people obtain and maintain political support through the award of all kinds of 'gifts' either in the form of money, position and development aid to their supporters. Politicians resort to patronage politics to keep their network of supporters intact and to build more networks.

On the surface, patronage politics seems to be a very straightforward phenomenon but what makes it fascinating and complicated is the network that describes the relationship between politicians and businessmen and the economic entities under their control. 

Historical Origin

Patronage politics is not a recent phenomenon. It has its roots during the colonial times. The British, for instance, gave timber licences to the USNO and UPKO leaders to fund their political activities. They awarded timber concessionaire to their supporters. 

Patronage politics continued even after the successive parties took over, for instance, under the Berjaya Government, timber licenses were given to Berjaya supporters according to the “ABC System” - A for leaders or followers, B for businessmen and C for community leaders, native chiefs and village headmen (Lim 2008).

The Berjaya Government also established many cooperatives through Koperasi BERJAYA Bhd or KOBERSA, which apart from providing jobs and generating incomes through small-medium business activities, were also used to induce people to join the party (Lim 2008).

After defeating the Berjaya Government, the new government under PBS vowed to cut political leaders’ ties with timber business but as it turned out many could not resist the temptation of using timber money to buy political support (Brown 2001).

Some were alleged to have stashed money obtained from timber profits somewhere in Hong Kong  and distributed timber concessions to their relatives (Brown 2001). Even though the number of timber concessions was relatively smaller compared to the size of timber concessions distributed during the USNO and Berjaya rule, PBS was equally responsible for deepening the politics of patronage using timber resources.

Under Sabah UMNO, timber concessions continued to be given to political supporters (Brown 2001). In fact, in order to ensure the downfall of PBS in 1994, two companies - Crocker Range Timur and Peluamas - were said to be instructed to buy over PBS leaders to jump to BN (Brown 2001). In return, Crocker Range Timur and Peluamas were awarded with vast timber concessions (Brown 2001).

A serious allegation came when a Chinese businessman - alleged to be  “runner” for a very influential UMNO leader was arrested in Hong Kong with Ringgit Malaysia 16 million in cash. Upon interrogation by the Hong Kong authorities, the businessman alleged that the money belonged to the UMNO leader to be used to fund political campaigns in Sabah. The UMNO leader had denied the allegation.

Prospects for Reform

Having shared with you the pervasiveness of patronage politics in Sabah, where do we go from here? And what are the prospects for reform?

Let me start by saying that this is the opportune time for us to make things right. We do not need a radical change like the American Revolution or the Russian Revolution. What we need is a structural change in our system. 

The new government at the state and federal level used the agenda for reform as their key campaign message. Even though lately there has been so much of unhappiness about the government not fulfilling its promises, I am giving the government the benefit of the doubt and I am confident that they will be bold enough to start the reform now.

I am optimistic because the young leaders from the ruling party and the opposition have spoken against patronage politics. Syed Saddiq, the young leader of Bersatu, had warned his party members against seeking contracts and positions. Some in his party didn't like what he said but his concerns were echoed by another young leader from Sabah UMNO Naim Moktar who said that "it is time to stop this political madness that aims only for monetary gain - there is no point in shouting "new Malaysia" if the essence is still the same as before".

The Warisan-led government is also taking the right step by stopping the practice of appointing politicians to head the GLCs.

We need to keep the momentum going so that this agenda for reform continue - and that more and more people will be educated about the problems in our system and the need to fix it urgently. But this has to be institutionalised. We need to introduce rules and regulations so that the system is not abused by politicians for their own gain. 

In Sabah, the practice of jumping from one party to another is legendary but we cannot blame the YBs for shifting their political allegiance. It is the system that encourages our YBs to jump from one party to another. We are told by the YBs that the reason for them to jump is because they can better serve their constituents under the ruling government. We also often hear people from the ruling government insisting that they won't give development assistance to areas controlled by the opposition.

This will not happen when we are in an inclusive political system where economic opportunities are distributed equitably according to the needs of society. This is something that the new government must address.

Many of us in Sabah believe that we can become like Singapore if we are independent or given more autonomy to run our own affairs. But unlike Sabah, Singapore promotes and practices good governance. Singapore's political institutions are inclusive. 

Our system is not defective but ineffective. Our political institutions are extractive in which our economic wealth is controlled by the select few through patronage politics. That's the reason why despite our natural wealth, our growth is low, our unemployment rate is high, and we have been consistently ranked as one of the poorest states in Malaysia.

So whatever reform we will do next, our target must be on making our institutions more inclusive and changing the system. If this is not done, even if a new government comes in, the new people will be prone to abuse the system for their political gain - and things will be much worst if the same people are elected and allowed to run the same old system. 

Thank you

*Based on talk on GLC Reform organised by the Institute of Development Studies (IDS) Sabah, March 25, 2019. 

Kimanis By-Election: A Do or Die Mission for Warisan and UMNO

Arnold Puyok & Asri Salleh

On 18 January 2020, the people in Kimanis will once again go to the polls. The more than 29,000 voters will decide whether it is Warisan/PH or UMNO/BN.

This is not an ordinary by-election. It is arguably the by-election of all the by-elections since GE14.

It is a litmus test for both Warisan and UMNO. Warisan’s performance in the by-election is a reflection of its popularity. The by-election will gauge the people’s feelings and support towards the PH-Warisan-UPKO-led government. If Warisan wins, it will give Chief Minister Shafie Apdal a major boost to lead Sabah until GE15. If Shafie can end the BN’s winning streak, he will have the leverage to strengthen Warisan’s control over local politics. UMNO needs to win this by-election too. Its victory will open the possibility for the party to reemerge as a strong alternative to the PH-Warisan-UPKO coalition. Sabah UMNO particularly has to prove that it is still a relevant party in Sabah. The Kimanis by-election is a golden opportunity for UMNO to discard the perception that it is a party stuck in a time warp.

As the by-election is a do or die mission for both parties, choosing the “right” candidate is crucial. Warisan has chosen to field Karim Bujang, a former UMNO stalwart and state assemblyman for Bongawan while UMNO has fielded Mohamad Alamin, the Kimanis UMNO divisional head. Both are no strangers to Kimanis voters. Both have their own strengths and weaknesses. The voters know their track record and background very well.

The issues in the by-election vary from local issues such as infrastructures to the PSS (Pass Sementara Sabah) or Sabah Temporary Pass. BN has so far campaigned heavily against the PSS, persuading the voters to reject Warisan as the PSS is akin to allowing illegals to stay in Sabah for good and a stepping stone for them to apply for citizenship. The narrative revolves around the slogan, "one vote for Warisan is a vote for the PSS”. Joining the BN in attacking the Warisan are members of the Gabungan Bersatu Sabah (GBS) - PBS, STAR and SAPP. This is an interesting partnership - one without a structured platform but a common issue as a basis for a strategic cooperation.

No matter how hard Warisan is trying to allay public fears over the PSS, the sentiment is that a substantial number of Sabahans are not convinced that it is an effective strategy to solve the problems of illegals in Sabah. It appears that people have more doubts now despite the explanation by Warisan leaders. The PSS could be one of the potent issues that could tip the balance of power in BN’s favour in Kimanis and beyond if it is not handled well by Warisan.

The PSS is like MA63. It has become a polemic as well as an emotive issue that can be easily exploited to win votes. Warisan is taking a huge risk in introducing the PSS as its effectiveness can only be seen when it is fully implemented. Thus without an effective communication strategy and a long-term plan to address the issue of illegals, the PSS will continue to be Warisan’s weak point.

'Development' is still a popular issue. Warisan campaigners urge the voters to vote for Warisan for the sake of development (the same strategy used by BN before). However, development as an issue is hard to sell nowadays especially if is it sold by those who failed to deliver when they were in power but now seeking to be reelected.

In Kimanis, ethnic factor plays a role too. But it is not always as straightforward as in Peninsular Malaysia. Ethnicity is often overshadowed by regional sentiment, cultural and religious similarities and family ties. So, how the Brunei Malay, the Kadazandusun and the Chinese voters vote will not solely be determined by ethno-religious sentiment alone.

It looks like Warisan has the advantage given that it controls access to state resources and machinery. But as GE14 shows, patronage politics and a well-oiled campaign machinery are no longer effective weapons to galvanise support. Sabahans have the habit of punishing their leaders at the polls. It is not impossible for the Kimanis voters to go against the tide.

Whatever the outcomes of the by-election are, the state government will still remain under the PH-Warisan-UPKO coalition. But the Kimanis by-election is enough to measure the feelings of the electorates towards the performance of the government of the day and its elected leaders.