Outcomes of the Sarawak election: Some key observations

Now that the results of the Sarawak election have been released and that the BN has managed to re-capture the state with more than two-thirds majority. Pundits have predicted earlier that the BN will not be able to retain its two-thirds majority and that the Opposition will trail from behind very closely. But if the results are anything to go by, they prove the pundits wrong and many have under-estimated the onslaught of the BN’s election machineries especially in rural Sarawak. My prediction that the Opposition will win handsomely in urban and Chinese-based areas proved to be correct. And the biggest casualty for BN in these areas was George Chan the Deputy Chief Minister and President of SUPP. SUPP could have also lost in Senadin but thanks to postal votes its candidate there Lee Kim Shin survived. While it is too early to tell the reasons behind SUPP’s misfortune, it is clear that the Chinese voters are not happy with the party’s performance all these years. It seems that the rural people have renewed their support to the BN except in Ba’Kelalan where they voted for the PKR candidate Baru Bian. After a third attempt, Baru finally managed to win in Ba’Kelalan. But his dream of becoming the Chief Minister has not materialised as Sarawak PKR has failed to live up to expectation. Here, the role of a candidate’s personality and character is important. Baru is a former church elder who has a strong following among the SIB-professed Lun Bawang and Kelabit voters. I wrote before that prior to polling, Lun Bawang and Kelabit voters had been receiving smses persuading them to vote for Baru. Apart from Baru’s religious affiliation and personality, the SPDP election machinery in Ba’Kelalan is partly to be blamed for the BN’s loss. Until the nomination was made, no one knew for sure who was going to take on Baru. Lack of preparation as well as failure to counter Baru’s NCR land abuse allegations contributed to the BN’s failure in Ba’Kelalan. Quite simply, no one in Ba’Kelalan is willing to take on Baru. This is understandable as almost everyone in Ba’Kelalan is related and where social cohesion is strong. Baru will remain a headache for the BN until the next state election. His presence in the state assembly will surely boost the Opposition’s credibility but the extent to which he will measure up is yet to be seen. Overall, however, Sarawak PKR’s performance has been disappointing. Winning just three seats out of 49 contested is rather too negligible to “ubah” the landscape of Sarawak politics. This means depending on Anwar’s “ceramahs” alone will not suffice to jolt the rural voters. Sarawak PKR has to do more in Sarawak. Grooming young and potential leaders is one thing and encouraging its members to fight for real issues is quite another if PKR wants to “ubah” Sarawak politics. The “star” of the election is the DAP who managed to win 12 seats out of 15 contested. SNAP has failed miserably in the election failing to win any seat even in areas it was tipped to win. All the key Iban leaders of SNAP lost in the election. This shows that some voters placed more emphasis on the personality of the candidates than their party affiliation. So, why did the BN win in rural areas and where had the Opposition gone wrong? Many have blamed money politics for the Opposition’s loss in the rural areas. While this might be the case, factor such as strong affinity to the BN also played an important role. The rural voters have been long associated with the BN and it takes more than just monetary benefits to break their loyalty to the ruling party. Lack of access to the alternative media and the culture of dependency that prevails in the rural community also ensured the BN’s comfortable majorities in the rural areas. As we can see, the Malay-Melanau and Bidayuh seats were won by BN, as expected, so were the Iban-majority seats. It is, however, too early to tell about the overall outcomes of the election as more in-depth analyses are needed to examine the voting pattern. Personally, I am interested to study Ba’Kelalan where Baru Bian won after a third attempt. Did the Lun Bawang, Kelabit and other Orang Ulu tribes in Ba’Kelalan reject Taib Mahmud’s “politics of development”? If most of the rural areas rejected the Opposition, then, why was it accepted in Ba’Kelalan. What was the message that the voters in Ba’Kelalan want to show? More to come...

A David and Goliath Battle in Ba' Kelalan

The guessing game continues The BN kept the people guessing when it left the BN candidacy in Ba' Kelalan vacant. Ba' Kelalan is one of the hot seats contested in the upcoming Sarawak election. When the list of candidates was announced, no name was mentioned to represent BN in Ba' Kelalan. And the speculations about Idris Jala's first foray into the political arena were squashed after he denied that he was the BN candidate to be fielded. The reason behind the incumbent Balang Rining's exclusion remains unclear but many have speculated that the BN cannot afford to field a less politically savvy person to take on Baru Bian who is a popular NCR (Native Customary Rights) lawyer in the Lun Bawang heartlands. A source related to me that the BN candidate who will fight Baru is a young lawyer from Ba' Kelalan. Until the final candidate is announced nothing is really certain. Whoever the candidate is, he must be willing to debate with Baru about the contentious NCR issue. Baru has long established himself as a native lawyer "fighting" for the people's land which he believes to have been "robbed" by the State Government for development purposes. He invited Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud to debate the issue but the latter had shown no interest to argue with Baru in public. He did respond to Baru's allegations of the NCR land abuse but some were not happy because Taib failed to raise doubts in the issues brought against him. Are the evidences too overwhelming for Taib to counter-argue? Or, is Baru too smart to debate with Taib? I, for one, is doubtful that any debate will ever take place in our elections, what more in Sarawak. It will come as a surprise to me if debates are slotted by the aspiring candidates in their campaigns. The Idris Jala factor It is not just the NCR land issue that has established Baru's leadership among the largely Lun Bawang community in Ba' Kelalan. His characters and Christian faith are also among the factors that make him the most likely candidate to win. The two previous elections (by election in 2004 and state election in 2006) are a testimony to Baru's popularity in Ba' Kelalan. Among the interesting issue to see is whether the Kelabits--the Lun Bawangs' "cultural cousins"--will vote for or against the BN this time around. They have been known as staunch supporters to the BN. The famous Malaysian Kelabit Idris Jala's prominence as a government troubleshooter and a business maestro will further boost the Kelabits' support to the BN. Had the plan to field Jala as a candidate materialised, it could have spelt trouble for Baru as the former is also an equally popular figure among the Kelabits and the Lun Bawangs. But Jala has denied that he is the "mysterious" candidate to represent the BN. And he is tactful enough by not associating himself with the Sarawak election. Jala so far has maintained a high level of professionalism and that he knows where his real calling is. However, it remains to be seen if Jala will go down to the election ground to campaign for the BN. If he does then Baru will have a tough time convincing the Lunbawangs and Kelabits to change their minds. Whoever the BN candidate in Ba' Kelalan is, he must be shrewd enough to overcome Baru's combination of wit, charisma and religious passion. Some of the Lun Bawangs and Kelabits are not easily duped into accepting the politics of development. The Lun Bawang and Kelabit communities have produced a substantial number of professionals and have strong middle class societies. The professional and educated Lun Bawangs and Kelabits will play a prominent role in determining the winner and loser of the election in Ba' Kelalan. The role of religion Another factor that will also determine the outcome of the battle in Ba' Kelalan is religion. Prior to the announcement of the candidates, the Lun Bawangs and Kelabits received messages via sms containing persuasive calls for the two communities to vote for Baru. Some even conducted prayer rallies to ensure his victory. For those who know Baru, he is a staunch Christian and an elder at an SIB church in Kuching. Apart from conducting a regular Bible study at his house, Baru is also active in church and gives sermons regularly. Prospect for the BN candidate In the final analysis, Baru's opponent will have to look into the former's track record in order to dislodge his influence. But no matter who the person is the battle in Ba' Kelalan will see a showdown between David and Goliath. Read more: "Whither Representative Democracy in Malaysia? The Ba' Kelalan By Election" by Arnold Puyok, Contemporary Southeast Asia (Singapore) "Voting Pattern and Issue in the Ba' Kelalan State Election" by Arnold Puyok, Asian Political Science Journal (UK) *Both articles are available upon request