anwar won permatang pauh...what would be his next course of action? part 1

i received a message from a friend telling me anwar was leading in the vote count. i tuned in to awani astro and the commentator annouced that at press time, anwar was still leading the two other candidates. i stayed on to watch the election analysis and it was almost certain that based on the feedbacks given by on-site journalists, anwar had won the election with a bigger majority this time. at 10 p.m. something, the commentator announced the official results: anwar won with 31 000 or so votes; arif, 15 000 or so votes and the akim candidate a mere 92 votes. compared with the majority received by wan azizah on march 8 this year, anwar managed to increase the majority votes to 15 000 or so votes--to the surprise of political analysts across the country. the voter turnout was low at 65 per cent even though the star reported today that it was in fact more than 80 per cent.

what does this election result tell us? a lot. first, it tells us that anwar is still an influential figure and a force to be reckoned with in malaysian politics. the sodomy allegation launched against him did not diminish his reputation. even before the election, the merdeka centre did a survey about the sodomy allegation and found out that a considerable number (about more than 30 per cent) of those polled believed that the allegation was politically motivated. second, anwar's victory has brought him closer to the corridor of power. an insider told me that the change in government is imminent: it will happen even before 16 september this year. the only thing anwar has to do now is to convince some 30 or so bn mps to crossover. how willing are these mps--alleged to be mostly from sabah--to change party is everyone's guess. but a source told me that they are prepared to leave bn provided anwar can convince them that the "takeover"plan is not just an elusive dream. third, now that anwar is in parliament, the bn will continue with the passing of the controversial dna bill. this is the only way to get rid of anwar. when the bill is passed then anwar will have no choice but to give his dna sample failing which he will have to pay 10 000 ringgit or one year in prison. soon after taking oath, anwar did not waste time to criticise the bill. when the opposition demanded a special committee to look into the bill, the home minister syed hamid albar refused, resulting in the opposition walkout today. by convention, the bn will face no obstacle in passing the bill as it has the number to form the simple majority needed. anwar's hope now lies in the hands of bn mps who believe in his struggle and do not mind to leave the bn.

anwar and arif to battle it out in permatang pauh

ok folks, who do you think will win the permatang pauh by-election? observers have made their bet about it: anwar will easily defeat arif but with a reduced majority win. anwar may not be able to match wan azizah's 13 000 or so majority votes due to the fact that the bn will use its might to ensure anwar's difficult passage into the parliament. if anwar won the election with a reduced majority, the bn will surely take it to mean that the popular support for the opposition icon is waning; if anwar lost the election, then, it would mean that the pakatan rakyat's ambition to grab power will not only be difficult but impossible. the political economist terence gomez of um said the 30 mps tipped to crossover would most likely stay in bn as it would be difficult to persuade them to change party.

earlier, i predicted that anwar would win the by-election in permatang pauh with a reduced majority. but since intelligence reports have indicated that the permatang pauh constituents are all for anwar, it may be safe to assume that anwar will win big. don't forget that permatang pauh is anwar's stronghold. whatever it is, let us see how the voters in permatang pauh will vote this time.

pbs has to do something to remain relevant

the pbs kiulu division showed what it means to criticise a leader when it asked the huguan siou pairin kitingan to quit to pave the way for a young progressive leader to take pbs's helm. for someone who has been on top for so many years, the call indicates that some pbs members have begun to see pairin as a lame duck leader who has lost his claws. those calling pairin to quit want his deputy maximus ongkili to take over pbs's leadership but the questions which pbs members need to ask themselves are: is maximus the right person to replace pairin? can he become the new huguan siou of the kadazandusun if pairin resigning as president of pbs would also mean that he need to relinquish the influential titular position as well?

talks at the grassroots level (and this was confirmed by a source as well) are that maximus is unlikely to replace pairin as huguan siou because compared to pairin, he does not have a strong grassroots base. maximus is also said to be not likeable among the chinese and muslim pbs members. if pbs was to remain relevant, at least as a multiracial party, it has to ensure that the chinese and muslim support remain strong. so far, pbs has done nothing constructive to maintain its chinese and muslim support. it is true, according to a source, that some chinese, in particular, have already begun to see sabah politics beyond pbs. the muslims, on the other hand, are beginning to see umno as a capable party to uniting the muslim community in sabah. the chinese and muslim who remain loyal to pbs now can be considered as those who are sympathetic to pbs's struggles.

if no credible leader is found and pairin has to resign, then pbs has to face its rival party upko which is now trying to woo kadazandusun members to its midst. upko may be more appealing to the kadazandusuns now because it mobilises its political movement along the strong kadazandusun sentiment. if pbs lost its kadazandusun support, it will surely face disbandment as its support depends heavily on the kadazandusun community.

so, really, pbs has no choice but to buckle up. this would mean revamping the party's lineup by injecting new young blood and preparing for a leadership transitional process. it also needs to woo young members who are beginning to develop interests towards politics. the pbs should emulate upko that has established komulakan to reach the younger generation. while it is true that from the political point of view that pbs would survive as long as it is in bn, it would face the same fate as in the case of mic and mca if no efforts are taken to solidify its mass support.

as for pairin, perhaps, it is time for him to focus more on uniting the kadazandusun community in his capacity as huguan siou. let someone helm the pbs and let not politics divides the kadazandusun further.