the upcoming 2008 general elections: things to be closely observed

after about two years and a half struggling to finish my thesis, i finally managed to complete the first draft and sent it to the graduate school for examination. i hope the examiners would not take a long time to read my thesis. my focus now is on preparing lectures to diploma and bachelor students at uitm sabah campus.

i want to write something about the upcoming general elections today. i think it is interesting because of several reasons: first, it will show whether the badawi administration is still supported by the electorate after much criticims ranging from its inability to weed out corruption to its failure in reviving the stagnant economy. second, it will test the opposition's power after the strong grassroots political mobilisation led by former deputy prime minister anwar ibrahim particularly in rural areas. third, it will show whether the ruling barisan nasional will be able to maintain the chinese and indian support. indication is that bn might lose several chinese and indian seats in the peninsular malaysia. already, the opposition has played out the hindraf issue and several hindraf key leaders have shown strong desire to stand as candidates.

personally, whatever the observation is, i think bn would win the elections but with a reduced number of seats particular in sabah and several chinese and indian seats in the peninsular malaysia. i don't think the opposition would be able to make an impact in sarawak as what it did in 2004. at best, i think the opposition might be able to retain its status quo while at the same time deny bn's majorities in several marginal seats. part of the problem among the opposition parties in sarawak is that they are unable to find a comprehensive solution to seat allocation and that they fail to campaign aggressively on a number of contentious issues such as the ncr issue, logging, and the "orang ulu" problem. having said that, the taib administration is still well entrenced in sarawak and as usual he will give bn a big win.

in sabah, the opposition might win several seats, in particular kadazandusun seats because the kadazandusun are now split between pbs, upko and pbrs. the sentiment played out by the opposition led by jeffrey and his keadilan comrades is that the kadazandusun has been alienated and that their rights have been ignored. the kadazandusun are very sentimental about their rights and they have long thought that their economic marginalisation is something which their leaders have failed to address. since pbs is no longer seen as champion to the kadazandusun people, the kadazandusun might turn their back on pairin and support jeffrey instead. upko might create an upset if it could project its image as the new champion to the kadazandusun people. what it needs to do is to convince bn to allocate it with more kadazandusun-majority seats. this if this were to happen, it would draw strong reaction from pbs which currently controls the kadazandusun seats .

sabah development corridor: the government must ensure it is not just an election gimmick

sabah has finally come up with its own corridor called "sabah development corridor" launced by the pm a couple of days ago. i am not sure, it might be the seventh development corridor in malaysia after the first corridor introduced by tun mahathir not long ago. the sabah development corridor will focus on developing three niche areas namely manufacturing, tourism and agriculture. i dont have the copy of the blueprint for sabah's 18-year development plan though i was made to understand that it is distributed for public viewing. when attending my public administration class the other day, most of my students were missing. i was told that they were asked to attend the launching of the corridor. but few made it to the class and i didn't mince my words to ask them what they understand about the corridor. well done!...they knew the basics. but when i asked if the project is good for sabah and its people in the long run, i received mixed reactions.

let me put it this way. i think what the present government should do is to fulfill all those promises made during the past elections. in 1994, i remember, under the sabah baru concept, the government had promised among other things, to provide a roof for every sabahan and as well as to ensure zero poverty by the year 2000. now 16 years has passed, sabah, though rich in natural resources, is still among the poorest state in malaysia. and recently according to the undp report, the kadazandusun are among the poorest of malaysian ethnic minority. we want to know what has the government achieved so far in tackling the issue of poverty eradication, as well as other pressing issues as per contained in the previous election manifesto. as rakyat, we want to ensure the government has fulfilled its promises first before giving our support for another costly development project. the government must ensure this project, as one of my student put it, is not an election propaganda and certainly not, using the pm's own words, "angan-angan mat jenin".

i will support the corridor provided i am convinced that a feasibility study has been done to look into its benefits to sabah and its people. i would love to read the study and give my input in areas which i am familiar with. in the same way, the government must also educate the public on the importance of having the corridor in sabah. i hope it is not another empty promise as a means to influence the people's minds to support the government whose term of office will expire very soon.